Variety The Awards Circuit section brings together all the news about awards and related content throughout the year, including the following: official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, hosted by Variety awards editor Clayton Davis. Predictions pages reflect the current race standings and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual competitor. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
Visit the respective ceremony prediction pages via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMY | GRAMMYS | TONY
UPDATE: June 5, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Nick Offerman and Murray Bartlett in “The Last of Us” (HBO)
HBO
Weekly Commentary: Could ‘Succession’ still top the drama director category this year? Mark Mylod could have submitted either “Connor’s Wedding” (Logan’s death) or the series finale “With Open Eyes” – he went with the former (good choice).
He also has his “Succession” colleagues to fight with – especially Andrij Parekh for “America Decides” (election night episode) and Lorene Scafaria (“Living +”), all of whom could make the cut. But as we saw last year when four directors did, they lost to “Squid Game” (not eligible this year).
It also has “The Last of Us” Peter Hoar directing the show’s best episode with stars Nick Offerman and Murray Bartlett. (Update: A previous version of this story listed Craig Mazin but he did not submit to direct, only to write)
Read: Variety Awards circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Voting for Emmy nominations takes place June 15-26. Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and subject to change.
2022 Category Winner: “Squid Game” (Netflix) – Hwang Dong-hyuk, “Red Light, Green Light”
And the expected nominees are:
- “Succession(HBO) – Mark Mylod, “Connor’s Wedding”
- “The last of us(HBO) – Peter Hoar, “Long, Long Time”
- “The White Lotus(HBO) – Mike White, “Arrivederci”
- “Succession(HBO) – Andrij Parekh, “America Decide”
- “Succession(HBO) – Lorene Scafaria, “Live+”
- “You better call Saul(AMC) – Peter Gould, “Saul Gone”
- “Dragon House(HBO) – Miguel Sapochnik, “Heirs of the Dragon”
Next in line
- “stranger things” (Netflix) – The Duffer Brothers, “Chapter Nine: The Piggyback”
- “The old man” (FX) – Jon Watts, “I”
- “The last of us(HBO) – Ali Abbasi, “When We’re In Need”
Other high-level possibilities
- “Andor(Disney+) — Benjamin Caron, “Rix Road”
- “yellow jackets(Showtime) – Liz Garbus, “Who”
- “yellow jackets(Showtime) – Karyn Kusama, “Storytelling”
- “Dragon House(HBO) – Greg Yaitanes, “The Dark Queen”
- “The crown(Netflix) – Christian Schwochow, “Ipatiev House”
- “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power(Prime Video) – JA Bayona, “A Shadow of the Past”
- “1923” (Paramount +) – Ben Richardson, “1923”
- “Succession(HBO) – Becky Martin, “Rehearsal”
- “Succession(HBO) – Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini, “Tailgate Party”
- “Yellowstone(Paramount Network) – Christina Alexandra Voros, “A Knife and a Coin”
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Henry Winkler in “Barry”
HBO
Weekly Commentary: Bill Hader, after his victory in DGA, could bring home another statuette for leading the entire season of “Barry”. However, this race is more open than all the others for the realization of series.
“The Bear” and “Shrinking” are the new kids who could have a lot of TV Academy behind them while the latest episodes of “Ted Lasso” and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” could hit heartwarming chords.
“Abbott Elementary” will need a manager’s name this time around to make a serious bid for the top tier, especially since it missed its inaugural season.
Read: Variety Awards circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Voting for Emmy nominations takes place June 15-26. Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and subject to change.
2022 Category Winner: “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+) – MJ Delaney, “No wedding and a funeral”
And the expected nominees are:
- “the bear(FX) – Christopher Storer, “System”
- “Ted Lasso(Apple TV+) – Declan Lowney, “Farewell, Farewell”
- “barry(HBO) – Bill Hader, “wow”
- “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel(Prime Video) – Amy Sherman-Palladino, “Four Minutes”
- “Contraction(Apple TV+) – James Ponsoldt, “Coin Flip”
- “Abbott Elementary School(ABC) – Randall Einhorn, “Development Day”
- “Wednesday(Netflix) – Tim Burton, “Wednesday’s Kid Is Full of Doom”
Next in line
- “Ted Lasso(Apple TV+) – Matt Lipsey, “Sunflowers”
- “Atlanta(FX) – Hiro Murai, “It Was Only A Dream”
- “Poker face(Peacock) – Rian Johnson, “The Dead Man’s Hand”
- “Contraction(Apple TV+) — Zach Braff, “Boom”
Other high-level possibilities
- “Only murders in the building(Hulu) – John Hoffman, “People of Interest”
- “Abbott Elementary School(ABC) – Ken Whittingham, “Mom”
- “Only murders in the building(Hulu) – Cherien Dabis, “The Tell”
- “What we do in the shadows(FX) – Kyle Newacheck, “Sunrise, Sunset”
- “Great(Hulu) – Matthew Moore, “The Bullet or the Bear”
- “someone somewhere(HBO) – Jay Duplass, “To Ed”
- “Only murders in the building(Hulu) – Jamie Babbit, “I Know Who Did It”
- “Reservation dogs(FX) – Sterling Harjo, “I Still Believe”
- “dead to me(Netflix) – Liz Feldman, “We’ve Reached the End”
- “month(Netflix) – Solvan Naim, “Testimony”
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or a Television Movie
Beef. (L to R) Steven Yeun as Danny, Ali Wong as Amy in episode 107 of Beef. cr. Courtesy of Netflix © 2022
COURTESY OF NETFLIX
Weekly Commentary: There is no obvious precursor as we have seen in other years.
The emotional resonance of FX’s “Fleishman is in Trouble” could do wonders for its directing duo, Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris.
We might also see our first recognized TV movie director in quite some time with Eric Appel’s hilarious “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” from The Roku Channel.
And then there’s “Beef,” which was a critical favorite, but its two main stars — Steven Yeun and Ali Wong — might be able to bring the show to life, and that also includes its director Lee Sung Jun.
Read: Variety Awards circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.
Voting for Emmy nominations takes place June 15-26. Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and subject to change.
2022 Category Winner: “The White Lotus” (HBO) – Mike White, Series
And the expected nominees are:
- “Beef(Netflix) – Lee Sung Jun, “Figure of Light”
- “love death(HBO) – Lesli Linka Glatter, “The Huntress”
- “Obi Wan Kenobi” (Disney+) – Deborah Chow, “Part VI”
- “George and Tammie” (Showtime) – John Hillcoat, series
Other high-level possibilities
- “A little light(National Geographic) — Susanna Fogel, “Pilot”
- “Dead ringtones(Prime Video) – Sean Durkin, “One”
- “The patient(Hulu) – Chris Long, “Admissions”
- “White House Plumbers” (HBO) – David Mandel, series
- “little beautiful things(Hulu) – Rachel Lee Goldenberg, “Pilot”
- “Five days at the Memorial(Apple TV+) – John Ridley, “Day One”
- “Fire Island(Hulu) – Andrew Ahn, Movie
- “Prey(Hulu) — Dan Trachtenberg, Movie
- “English” (Prime Video) — Hugo Blick, Series
- “Mrs Davis(Peacock) – Owen Harris, “Mother of Mercy: The Call of the Horse”
Emmy Awards Prediction Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGICAL SERIES | TV FILM | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEADING ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEADING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SECONDARY ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTION (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED FILM/TV) | REALITY (CONTEST, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are presented by the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American prime-time television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (recognizes achievement in craftsmanship), and Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant contributions in engineering and technology). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy has over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.