Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
UPDATED: March 23, 2023
Weekly Commentary: This week’s predictions have a heavy focus on some of the year’s most popular television series, such as “The Last of Us” from HBO and “Abbott Elementary” from ABC, along with critical darlings such as “The Bear” from FX and “Shrinking” from Apple TV+.
The first charts for best drama series and best comedy series, featuring the top 20 contenders and presumed submissions, have been launched.
Added this week are the first guesses at the possibilities for the directing races. In drama, we’re all-in for the acclaimed “Long, Long Time” episode from “The Last of Us” that featured the two guest actor (drama) front-runners Murray Bartlett and Nick Offerman.
In comedy, DGA winner Bill Hader has helmed every episode of the final season of “Barry,” but the TV Academy loves pilot episodes which could help Rian Johnson (“Poker Face”), James Ponsoldt (“Shrinking”) and Christopher Storer (“The Bear”).
Finally, we can expect a lively battle between the TV movie “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” and its director Eric Appel, who could battle either Paris Barclay’s finale episode of “Dahmer” or Deborah Chow, who steered the entire “Obi-Wan Kenobi” spin-off run.
All predictions listed on this page are in alphabetical order. The full rankings are on the individual category pages when they’re published.
Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Drama Series
Image Credit: Courtesy of Kailey Schwerman/Showtime “Andor” (Disney+)
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
“Succession” (HBO) ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Comedy Series
Image Credit: Beth Dubber “Abbott Elementary” (ABC) ***
“Barry” (HBO)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Beef” (Netflix)
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>>
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Limited or Anthology Series
Image Credit: HBO Max “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
“George and Tammy” (Showtime)
“Love & Death” (HBO)
“White House Plumbers” (HBO) ***Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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TV Movie
Image Credit: Claire Folger “Boston Strangler” (Hulu)
“Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic” (NBC)
“Fire Island” (Hulu) ***
“Prey” (Hulu)
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Des Willie / Lucasfilm Ltd. Jeff Bridges
“The Old Man” (FX)
Brian Cox ***
“Succession” (HBO)
Diego Luna
“Andor” (Disney+)
Bob Odenkirk
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Pedro Pascal
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Jeremy Strong
“Succession” (HBO)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Matt Dinerstein/FX Bill Hader
“Barry” (HBO)
Steve Martin
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Martin Short
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Jason Segel
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Jason Sudeikis ***
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Jeremy Allen White
“The Bear” (FX)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Roku Taron Egerton
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Woody Harrelson
“White House Plumbers” (HBO)
Evan Peters ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Jesse Plemons
“Love and Death” (HBO)
Daniel Radcliffe
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel)
Michael Shannon
“George and Tammy” (Showtime)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO Emma D’Arcy
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Helen Mirren
“1923” (Paramount+)
Melanie Lynskey ***
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Elisabeth Moss
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
Bella Ramsey
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Imelda Staunton
“The Crown” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: Peacock Christina Applegate
“Dead to Me” (Netflix)
Rachel Brosnahan
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
Quinta Brunson ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Bridget Everett
“Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
Natasha Lyonne
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Jenna Ortega
“Wednesday” (Netflix)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Lacey Terrell/Prime Video Emily Blunt
“The English” (Amazon Prime Video)
Jessica Chastain ***
“George and Tammy” (Showtime)
Jennifer Garner
“The Last Thing He Told Me” (Apple TV+)
Riley Keough
“Daisy Jones and the Six” (Amazon Prime Video)
Amber Midthunder
“Prey” (Hulu)
Elizabeth Olsen
“Love and Death” (HBO)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: HBO F. Murray Abraham ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Jonathan Banks
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Ismael Cruz Córdova
“The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Amazon Prime Video)
Kieran Culkin
“Succession” (HBO)
Giancarlo Esposito
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
John Lithgow
“The Old Man” (FX)
Matthew Macfadyen
“Succession” (HBO)
Matt Smith
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Image Credit: Merrick Morton/HBO Harrison Ford
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
Brett Goldstein
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Brian Tyree Henry
“Atlanta” (FX)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
“The Bear”
Tony Shalhoub
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
Tyler James Williams ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Henry Winkler
“Barry” (HBO)
Bowen Yang
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures Murray Bartlett
“Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
Domhnall Gleeson
“The Patient” (FX)
Paul Walter Hauser
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Richard Jenkins ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Ray Liotta
“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Bowen Yang
“Fire Island” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television Jennifer Coolidge ***
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Elizabeth Debicki
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Meghann Fahy
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
Lesley Manville
“The Crown” (Netflix)
Christina Ricci
“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
Rhea Seehorn
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
J. Smith-Cameron
“Succession” (HBO)
Sarah Snook
“Succession” (HBO)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Image Credit: ABC Alex Borstein
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
Ayo Edebiri
“The Bear” (FX)
Janelle James
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ego Nwodim
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Sheryl Lee Ralph ***
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Hannah Waddingham
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
Lisa Ann Walter
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection Claire Danes
“Fleishman is in Trouble” (FX)
Lena Headey
“White House Plumbers” (HBO)
Niecy Nash-Betts ***
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Lily Rabe
“Love & Death” (HBO)
Meryl Streep
“Extrapolations” (Apple TV+)
Merritt Wever
“Tiny Beautiful Things” (Hulu)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Talk Series
Image Credit: Lloyd Bishop/NBC “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC) ***
“My Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman” (Netflix)
“Late Night with Seth Meyers” (NBC)
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
“The Problem With Jon Stewart” (Apple TV+)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Scripted Variety Series
Image Credit: Screenshot Courtesy of HBO “A Black Lady Sketch Show” (HBO)
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO) ***
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
“Ziwe” (Showtime)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Game Show
Image Credit: Photo courtesy of Jeopardy Productions, Inc. “Floor is Lava” (Netflix)
“Is It Cake?” (Netflix)
“Let’s Make a Deal” (CBS)
“Jeopardy” (ABC) ***
“The Price is Right” (CBS)
“Wheel of Fortune” (ABC)Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Directing (Drama)
Image Credit: Liane Hentscher/HBO “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
Peter Gould, “Saul Gone”
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
Miguel Sapochnik, “The Heirs of the Dragon”
“The Last of Us” (HBO) ***
Peter Hoar, “Long, Long Time”
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
Craig Mazin, “When You’re Lost in the Darkness”
“The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Amazon Prime Video)
J.A. Bayona, “A Shadow of the Past”
“Succession” (HBO)
TBA director(s), “TBA episode title”Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Directing (Comedy)
Image Credit: Philippe Antonello/Prime “Barry” (HBO) ***
Bill Hader, “TBA episode”
“The Bear” (FX)
Christopher Storer, “System”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Amazon Prime Video)
TBA Director, “TBA episode”
“Poker Face” (Peacock)
Rian Johnson, “Dead Man’s Hand”
“Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
James Ponsoldt, “Coin Flip”
“Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
TBA Director, “TBA episode”Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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Directing (Limited/TV Movie)
Image Credit: Disney Plus “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Michaël R. Roskam, “Pilot”
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Paris Barclay, “God of Forgiveness, God of Vengeance”
“Love & Death” (HBO)
Lesli Linka Glatter, “TBA Episode Title”
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
Deborah Chow, “Part VI”
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (The Roku Channel) ***
Eric Appel
“White House Plumbers” (HBO)
David Mandel, “TBA Episode Title”Emmy category page with rankings>>> coming soon
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TV Columns and Podcast Archives
Image Credit: ABC Awards Circuit TV Columns
- TV columns to begin in April 2023.
Awards Circuit Podcast (TV Season) Archives
- TV episodes are set to premiere in April 2023.
Emmy Awards Predictions Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER, SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.
