Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Sept. 30, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The supporting actress race is the most wide open of any category this year. You can pick any of the names listed no. 1 through no. 30 as your predicted winner, and I could believe you. We’ll see where the consensus lies. Expect lots of placement shifts and movements in the rankings over the next few weeks.
With the news of contenders campaigning in this category such as Thuso Mbedu alongside Lashana Lynch for “The Woman King” and Emma Corrin, as part of the ensemble for “My Policeman,” the race adds even more possibilities.
The biggest benefactors of Michelle Williams moving to lead actress, are any number of the women from Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking.” With no decisions yet announced on where the ladies will campaign, a majority of them are expected to go for supporting attention. Jessie Buckley, fresh off her nom for “The Lost Daughter” (2021), could be the easiest thing to recognize, while her co-star Claire Foy, still hoping to make up for her grotesque snub for “First Man” (2018), could be right on her heels.
What will be interesting is to assess if they will stop there for the movie that was the runner-up of the People’s Choice Award at TIFF to Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans.” Would the Actors Branch be willing to tack one more on with Judith Ivey’s fiery turn, which stands out in the film’s final moments? The Academy has done it before. In supporting actress, it’s happened once for the best picture winner “Tom Jones” (1963), which landed Diane Cilento, Edith Evans and Joyce Redman in the lineup. They all lost to Margaret Rutherford for “The V.I.P.s.”
For comparison, it’s happened three times with supporting actor – “On the Waterfront” (1954), “The Godfather” (1972) and “The Godfather Part II” (1974). Of the group, only Robert DeNiro pulled out a win for the 1974 sequel.
A third of the time, this category has yielded more than one actress nominated for the same movie. There are a large number of films angling to exploit that statistic: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Laura Dern and Vanessa Kirby for “The Son” and Hong Chau and Sadie Sink for “The Whale.”
We’re still waiting on the word for “She Said,” which could put either Carey Mulligan or Zoe Kazan in this race, or a rumored standout Jennifer Ehle; possibly even Patricia Clarkson.
Maybe previous winners such as Anne Hathaway from “Armageddon Time” or Whoopi Goldberg from “Till” can catch on as their films progress in the race. Even two-time winner Sally Field (“Norma Rae” and “Places in the Heart”) could factor in for the adaptation of “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies.”
More to go.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Name
Film
Distributor
1
Jessie Buckley
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
2
Jamie Lee Curtis
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
3
Nina Hoss
“TÁR”
Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
4
Thuso Mbedu
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
5
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case.
Next in Line
6
Claire Foy
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
7
Angela Bassett
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa.
8
Kerry Condon
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them.
9
Stephanie Hsu
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
10
Dolly De Leon
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11
Lashana Lynch
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
12
Jennifer Ehle
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
13
Hong Chau
“The Whale”
A24
14
Judith Ivey
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
15
Laura Dern
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
16
Gabrielle Union
“The Inspection”
A24
17
Anne Hathaway
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
18
Sheila McCarthy
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
19
Sadie Sink
“The Whale”
A24
20
Whoopi Goldberg
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
Also In Contention
21
Vanessa Kirby
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
22
Aimee Lou Wood
“Living”
Sony Pictures Classics
23
Olivia DeJonge
“Elvis”
Warner Bros.
24
Nicole Kidman
“The Northman”
Focus Features
25
Jean Smart
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
26
Dakota Johnson
“Cha Cha Real Smooth”
Apple Original Films
27
Frances McDormand
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
28
Sally Field
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”
Focus Features
29
Keke Palmer*
“Nope”
Universal Pictures
30
Emma Corrin*
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
Other Awards Possibilities
31
Dominique Thorne
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
32
Rooney Mara*
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
33
Tamara Lawarance*
“The Silent Twins”
Focus Features
34
Zoe Kazan*
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
35
Danai Gurira
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
36
Patricia Clarkson
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
37
Lupita Nyong’o
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
38
Kate Winslet
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
39
Julia Butters
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
40
Michelle Williams*
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—
Aimee Carrero
“The Menu”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Aimee Lou Wood*
“Living”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Andrea Riseborough
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Angela Bassett
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Anne Hathaway*
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
—
Anya Taylor-Joy
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Billie Piper
“Catherine Called Birdy”
Amazon Studios
—
Bria Danielle Singleton
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”
Sony Pictures
—
Candice Bergen
“As They Made Us”
Quiver
—
CCH Pounder
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Charlotte Gainsbourg
“The Pale Blue Eye”
Netflix
—
Chloë Sevigny
“Bones & All”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Claire Foy
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Crystal Clarke
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Dakota Johnson
“Cha Cha Real Smooth”
Apple Original Films
—
Danai Gurira
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Dolly De Leon
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
—
Dominique Thorne
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Doona Bae
“Broker”
Neon
—
Edie Falco
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Elizabeth Olsen
“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”
Marvel Studios
—
Ella Hunt
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”
Netflix
—
Émilie Dequenne
“Close”
A24
—
Emily Mitchell
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Emma Corrin*
“My Policeman”
Amazon Studios
—
Emma Thompson
“What’s Love Got to Do With It?”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Florence Kasumba
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Frances McDormand*
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Gabrielle Union
“Strange World”
Walt Disney Pictures
—
Gabrielle Union
“The Inspection”
A24
—
Gemma Chan
“Don’t Worry Darling”
Warner Bros
—
Gillian Anderson
“The Pale Blue Eye”
Netflix
—
Greta Gerwig*
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Griselda Sicillani
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Netflix
—
Haley Bennett
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
—
Hong Chau
“The Whale”
A24
—
Iris Berben
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
—
Isabella Rossellini
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
A24
—
Jamie Lee Curtis
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
—
Janelle Monáe
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Janet McTeer
“The Menu”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Jayme Lawson
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
—
Jean Smart
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
—
Jennifer Connelly
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Paramount Pictures
—
Jennifer Ehle
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
—
Jessica Chastain
“Armageddon Time”
Focus Features
—
Jessica Hardwick
“The Lost King”
Warner Bros.
—
Jessica Henwick
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Jessie Buckley
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Jodie Turner-Smith
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Joely Richardson
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”
Netflix
—
Judi Dench
“Allelujah”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Judith Ivey
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Judith Ivey
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Judith Light
“The Menu”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Julia Butters
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
—
Julianne Nicholson
“Blonde”
Netflix
—
Kaitlyn Dever
“Ticket to Paradise”
Netflix
—
Kate Hallett
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Kate Hudson
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Kate Winslet
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Kathryn Hahn
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Keke Palmer*
“Nope”
Universal Pictures
—
Kerry Condon
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Kim Dickens
“The Good Nurse”
Netflix
—
Kristen Stewart
“Crimes of the Future”
Neon
—
Lashana Lynch
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
—
Laura Dern
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Léa Drucker
“Close”
A24
—
Léa Seydoux
“Crimes of the Future”
Neon
—
Letitia Wright*
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Lucy Boynton
“Chevalier”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Lucy Boynton
“The Pale Blue Eye”
Netflix
—
Lupita Nyong’o
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Marvel Studios
—
Madelyn Cline
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
Netflix
—
Mar Carrera
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Netflix
—
Margot Robbie*
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Maria Bakalova
“Bodies Bodies Bodies”
A24
—
Marsha Stephanie Blake
“Brother”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Meteora Fontana
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Netflix
—
Mia Wasikowska
“Blueback”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Michelle McLeod
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Michelle Monaghan
“Nanny”
Amazon Studios
—
Michelle Williams
“The Fabelmans”
Universal Pictures
—
Michelle Yeoh
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Minnie Driver
“Chevalier”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Niamh Algar
“The Wonder”
Netflix
—
Nicole Kidman
“The Northman”
Focus Features
—
Nina Hoss
“TÁR”
Focus Features
—
Noémie Merlant
“TÁR”
Focus Features
—
Octavia Spencer
“Spirited”
Apple Original Films
—
Olivia DeJonge
“Elvis”
Warner Bros.
—
Olivia Wilde
“Babylon”
Paramount Pictures
—
Olivia Wilde
“Don’t Worry Darling”
Warner Bros
—
Oona Chaplin
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Patricia Clarkson
“Monica”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Patricia Clarkson
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
—
Quintessa Swindell
“Black Adam”
Warner Bros
—
Rachel Keller
“Butcher’s Crossing”
Saban Films
—
Rachel Keller
“A Man Called Otto”
Sony Pictures
—
Radha Mitchell
“Blueback”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Raffey Cassidy
“White Noise”
Netflix
—
Rooney Mara*
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Ruth Wilson
“See How They Run”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Sadie Sink
“The Whale”
A24
—
Sally Field
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”
Focus Features
—
Samantha Morton
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
—
Samantha Morton
“The Whale”
A24
—
Samara Weaving
“Chevalier”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Saoirse Ronan*
“See How They Run”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Shayla Brown
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Sheila Atim
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
—
Sheila McCarthy
“Women Talking”
MGM/United Artists Releasing
—
Sian Clifford
“See How They Run”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Sigourney Weaver
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
20th Century Studios
—
Sigourney Weaver
“Call Jane”
Roadside Attractions
—
Sigourney Weaver
“Master Gardener”
No U.S. Distribution
—
Sophie Okonedo
“Raymond & Ray”
Apple Original Films
—
Stephanie Hsu
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
A24
—
Tamara Lawarance*
“The Silent Twins”
Focus Features
—
Tamara Tunie
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”
Sony Pictures
—
Tanya Moodie
“Empire of Light”
Searchlight Pictures
—
Taylor Swift
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Tessa Thompson
“Thor: Love and Thunder”
Marvel Studios
—
Thusa Mbedu
“The Woman King”
Sony Pictures
—
Vanessa Kirby
“The Son”
Sony Pictures Classics
—
Vicki Berlin
“Triangle of Sadness”
Neon
—
Whoopi Goldberg
“Till”
Orion/United Artists Releasing
—
Wunmi Mosaku
“Alice, Darling”
Lionsgate
—
Ximena Lamadrid
“Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)”
Netflix
—
Zoe Kazan
“She Said”
Universal Pictures
—
Zoë Kravitz
“The Batman”
Warner Bros.
—
Zoe Saldaña
“Amsterdam”
20th Century Studios
—
Zooey Deschanel
“Dreamin’ Wild”
No U.S. Distribution
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.