Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Blitz
Apple
Weekly Commentary (Updated July 19, 2024): Imagine an Oscar ceremony featuring Lady Gaga, Selena Gomez, and Ariana Grande: the ratings would undoubtedly soar. Given the competitive landscape of the supporting actress category, this scenario could become a reality.
Jacques Audiard’s musical drama “Emilia Pérez” is making waves after its four lead actresses collectively won the best actress prize at the Cannes Film Festival. Although campaign submissions are still pending, the film has the potential to secure two of the five slots for its actors, a feat achieved about a third of the time in this category. Zoe Saldaña, the first actor to star in four movies grossing over $2 billion each, has consistently shown her industry prowess but has yet to display her acting depth fully. Her role in Netflix’s tentpole awards contender might be her opportunity to follow in the footsteps of past winners like Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”) and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”).
Her co-star Selena Gomez, fresh from earning her first acting Emmy nomination for “Only Murders in the Building,” might be nominated alongside Saldaña. This would be a historic moment, marking the first time two Latinas are nominated in the same category—a recognition long overdue.
Universal Pictures’ highly anticipated adaptation of the blockbuster musical “Wicked,” set to release at the end of the year, stars Ariana Grande as the infectious and hilarious Glinda, the Good Witch. This role could highlight Grande’s strengths and potentially steal the show. Initially played by Kristen Chenoweth on Broadway, who was nominated for a Tony alongside Idina Menzel (who won for her role) in lead actress in a musical, Grande might opt to campaign separately from her co-star, Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo, improving both their chances. Again, no formal decisions have been made yet but conversations are ongoing.
Anticipation is high for Todd Phillips’ jukebox sequel “Joker: Folie à Deux,” with Joaquin Phoenix reprising his Oscar-winning role. Lady Gaga, who won an Oscar for best original song (“Shallow” from “A Star is Born”), is playing the sultry villain Harley Quinn. While many assumed she would compete for lead actress, sources indicate she might pursue a supporting actress nomination, as the story is reportedly told from Arthur Fleck’s perspective. Gaga could be in a strong position if her screen time justifies it and the film meets expectations.
There are also opportunities for beloved and overdue veterans and newcomers, such as Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), and Carol Kane (“Between Two Temples”), along with former winners Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Wicked”).
Large ensemble casts might also produce contenders, with films like “His Three Daughters” (Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, Elizabeth Olsen), “SNL: 1975” (Rachel Sennott, Ella Hunt, Emily Fairn, Kim Matula), and “Blitz” (Saoirse Ronan, Erin Kellyman, Kathy Burke, Hayley Squires) possibly seeing individual standout performances catching voters’ attention.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of Saint-Laurent Productions And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 2 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 3 Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 4 Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) 5 Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Focus Features Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 7 Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 8 Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features) 9 Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 10 Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 12 Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) 13 Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features) 14 Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi) 15 Carol Kane — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics) 16 Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) 17 Vanessa Kirby — “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) 18 Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24) 19 Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM) 20 Rachel Sennott — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 22 Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) 23 Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 24 Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures) 25 Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) ** 26 Michelle Yeoh — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 27 Kelly Reilly — “Here” (Sony Pictures) 28 Zendaya — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) 29 Erin Kellyman — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) 30 Catherine O’Hara — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) Oscars: Best Actress in a Supporting Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
More Information (Oscars: Best Supporting Actress)
Image Credit: Rich Polk for Variety 2024 category winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
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Eligible Titles (Best Supporting Actress)
Image Credit: Sam Levy/Netflix ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- Gemma Chan — “The Actor” (Neon) **
- Maria Bakalova — “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Sophie Wilde — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Catherine O’Hara — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) **
- Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Alison Steadman — “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- Carol Kane — “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
- Nykiya Adams — “Bird” (Mubi)
- Erin Kellyman — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) **
- Hayley Squires — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- Lashana Lynch — “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Elle Fanning — “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- Dafne Keen — “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- Glenn Close — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Demi Singleton — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Joan Chen — “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- Rebecca Ferguson — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Florence Pugh — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Zendaya — “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- Ana de Armas — “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Vanessa Kirby — “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Sydney Sweeney — “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Naomi Watts — “Emmanuelle” (Neon)
- Selena Gomez — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Adriana Paz — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon)
- Oluniké Adeliyi — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Sarah Pidgeon — “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Connie Nielsen — “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- Michele Austin — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- Imogen Poots — “Hedda” (Amazon MGM)
- Michelle Dockery — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Kelly Reilly — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
- Chloe East — “Heretic” (A24) **
- Sophie Thatcher — “Heretic” (A24) **
- Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
- Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
- Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
- Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Sasha Calle — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- Lio Mehiel — “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) **
- Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24) **
- Zoe Ziegler — “Janet Planet” (A24)
- Zazie Beetz — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
- Catherine Keener — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Hong Chau — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Amy Adams — “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures)
- Marion Cotillard — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Valeria Golino — “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution)
- Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Tiffany Boone — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Beyoncé Knowles-Carter — “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- Maddie Ziegler — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor — “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- Emma Corrin — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) **
- Jennifer Grey — “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Amber Midthunder — “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Oprah Winfrey — “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- Eileen Walsh — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Emily Watson — “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- Ella Hunt — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Kim Matula — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Rachel Sennott — “SNL: 1975” (Sony Pictures)
- Margaret Qualley — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- Jennifer Lopez — “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) **
- Michelle Yeoh — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Laura Linney — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
- Tilda Cobham-Hervey — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
