Every year, when the Academy does a membership count just before Oscar nomination voting begins, TheWrap uses those numbers to determine how many votes it will take to receive an Oscar nomination in each of the 23 categories.
This year, the answer is easy: it will cost almost the same as last year.
Now that the Academy has stopped inviting large groups of new members each year, which it did for six consecutive years starting in 2016, the organization is growing more slowly. Just 92 more members are eligible to vote in 2023 than in 2022, and they’re spread across the 17 Academy branches that handle nominations in most Oscar categories.
In six different categories – cinematography, costume design, film editing, sound, and the two writing categories – there has been no change in the number of votes needed to earn a nomination; In four other categories, this year’s magic number is just one more than last year.
The biggest change, naturally, came in the only category that everyone can vote on in the nomination round, Best Picture. If all members vote, it will take 871 votes to secure a nomination this year, eight more than the 863 it took last year.
Before we get into the category-by-category breakdown, a reminder: when we say 871 votes are needed for a Best Picture nomination, we’re talking about first place votes. Under the preferred or ranked choice system of the Oscars, a voter typically lists her top five choices in order of preference. (In the Best Picture category, they are allowed to list up to 10 options.) After the first-place votes are totaled, the lowest-ranked films are removed from contention and their votes are redistributed to the second-ranked film. each ballot.
(If the second choice has also been eliminated, or has already reached the magic number and secured a nomination, voting goes to the next highest contender on the ballot.)
Redistribution continues until the field is narrowed down to the final five nominees, or the top 10 Best Picture finalists.
To find the magic number for each category, take the number of potential voters in that category and divide it by the number of nominees, plus one. (In all cases except Best Picture, that means 5+1=6.) Round the result up to the next highest number to get the “magic number” that ensures a movie or achievement will make the top five.
Here’s the breakdown of what it will take to land a nomination in each category when voting begins on January 12.
best image
If all 9,579 eligible voters cast ballots in this category, it would take 871 No. 1 votes to guarantee a nomination. But even if a movie doesn’t have that many first-place votes in the initial tally, it will likely have plenty of rounds to get additional votes as other movies are eliminated.
Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress
The size of the Actors Branch dropped from 1,336 to 1,302 this year, which means the magic number dropped as well, from 223 to 218. If each of the 1,302 voters in the Academy’s largest branch casts a vote, that is the number of votes it will take to earn a nomination in each of the four Oscar acting categories.
Best Animated Feature
The Feature Short Film and Animation Branch has 867 voting members, making it the second largest branch of the Academy. Normally that would mean 145 votes would secure a nomination.
But voting in this category is open not only to all members of the branch, but also to all Academy members outside of the branch who volunteer to participate in the voting.
Potential voters were divided into three groups, with each group required to view an assigned group of nine movies out of 27 that qualified. The number required to get a nomination depends entirely on how many members participated in that process.
Best Photography
The branch has 290 current voting members, the same as last year. That means 49 first-place votes earn a nomination, the same as in 2022.
Best Costume Design
With 169 members, the costume designers make up the smallest branch of the Academy to vote for its own award. (The Casting Directors Branch is smaller, but there is no casting award at the Oscars, so like members of the Executive and Marketing & PR Branches, as well as Members in general, members of that branch can only vote for a Best Picture nomination.) While the size of the branch has dropped by two members from last year, the magic number has remained unchanged: a costume design nomination can still be secured with only 29 votes, less than any other category.
best director
There are now 573 voters in the Director Branch, which means that 96 votes will guarantee a nomination if everyone votes. (That’s one more than last year.)
Best Documentary Feature
After a first round of voting narrowed the field of 144 qualified films to a list of 15 films, the 648 members of the Documentary Branch chose their five favorites. If everyone votes, it will take 108 votes to be nominated.
Best Documentary Short
The same 648 members of the documentary section are eligible to vote now that the 98 short film candidates have been whittled down to a list of 15 films. It’s highly unlikely that everyone in the branch would see the eligible shorts and vote, but if they did that, the magic number would again be 108.
Best Film Editing
With 376 members of the Film Editors Branch, he needs 63 votes to secure a nomination.
Best International Feature Film
This category is also open to volunteer members of all branches of the Academy. AMPAS never discloses how many participate, although it is likely less than 1,000 members, and possibly much less. After the field of 92 contenders was narrowed down to a shortlist of 15 films, voting is open to any member who sees all 15 films, which are available on the Academy’s members’ website. The magic number will depend entirely on how many members watch all the movies and vote.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The branch has 236 voting members. Voting is restricted to members who watched a special presentation of clips or members who watched the 10 shortlisted movies. If every branch member participates in one of those ways, it would take 40 votes to secure a nomination, one more than last year.
Best Original Score, Best Original Song
The Music Branch contains 388 voting members. The 147 eligible scores and 81 eligible songs went through an initial round of voting that narrowed the contenders down to two shortlists of 15. In the nomination round of voting, assuming everyone votes, the magic number to get a nomination will be 65.
Best Production Design
The branch has 390 members, so 66 votes will be enough for a nomination.
better sound
With 549 members in the Sound Branch, a drop of one from last year, the nomination threshold remains at 92 votes.
better visual effects
There are 615 branch members, which would mean a magic number of 103 if the VFX branch calculated nominations like most other branches do. But it’s not like that.
An executive committee first narrows the field to 20 films and then to a shortlist of 10. Clips from those films were then screened virtually for branch members, followed by brief discussions with the VFX artists responsible for the work.
Members then cast votes to select the five nominees, but instead of the ranked-choice system, the branch uses weighted rank voting, which divides each individual score by the total score awarded to all candidates in that category. ticket. The idea is to identify the movies that score the highest against the rest of the field. At no point in the count does a magic number come into play.
Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay
The Writers Branch has 510 voting members, meaning it requires 86 votes to guarantee a write-in nomination.
Best Animated Short Film, Best Live-Action Short Film
The Animated Short and Feature Film Branch has 867 voting members. All of them were eligible to rate the qualifying films to determine two shortlists out of 15 films, one drawn from the 81 eligible animated shorts and one from the 200 eligible live action shorts. Branch members who see all of the shortlisted films can vote for the last five nominees. Members of the Directors, Producers and Writers Branches are also invited to participate in the voting for the Best Live Action Short Film category.
In the unlikely event that the entire branch (and all Directors, Producers, and Writers branches) participate, that would mean a magic number of 145 votes in animation and 434 in live action. But in reality, it’s probably much lower.
Voting for nominations will begin on Thursday, January 12 and close on Tuesday, January 17. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24.
