The universe is bigger than you think, and so are the possibilities of Oscar-nom. The nomination period for AMPAS members runs from January 12-17, which means voters will cast their ballots before the names of major guilds such as BAFTA and WGA are revealed. This poses tantalizing questions about how Academy voters will approach this year’s harvest.
Will the box office dictate the Oscars?
The three highest-grossing movies of 2022 — “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” and “Top Gun: Maverick” — are likely up for the top nods. Since modern box office tracking began in 1977, the Oscars have never nominated the three highest-grossing films of the year. Only twice have they acknowledged the first two: “Raiders of the Lost Ark” and “On Golden Pond” in 1981 and “ET the Extra-Terrestrial” and “Tootsie” in 1982.
That said, five top-grossing films won Best Picture: ‘Kramer vs. Kramer’ (1979), ‘Rain Man’ (1988), ‘Forrest Gump’ (1994), ‘Titanic’ (1997) and ‘The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003).
Will AMPAS accommodate administrators resurfacing after long breaks?
Several directors have returned to the director’s chair after more than a decade away, including Todd Field with “Tár” (16), James Cameron with “The Way of Water” (13) and Sarah Polley with “Women Talking ” (10 years). years). All have been critically acclaimed and shown strength with trailblazing awards, placing them firmly in the conversation for nods from fellow directors. Will voters think it was worth the wait?
AFTER SUN, from left: Frankie Corio, Paul Mescal, 2022. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy of Everett Collection
Will the Oscars Best Movies list mirror the BAFTAs Best Movies list?
This year, BAFTA has changed its voting process, shortlisting 10 films instead of 15, and will whittle that list down to five for final nods. That means the British Academy selections, which included surprises like A24’s “Aftersun” and Sony Pictures Classics’ “Living,” could be more influential than ever. The significant overlap of BAFTA and AMPAS members could be good news for entrants like Neon’s “Triangle of Sadness” and troubling for films like 20th Century Studios’ snubbed “Avatar: The Way of Water.”
Will Tom Cruise get his first nod in 24 years?
Beginning with “Born on the 4th of July” (1989) and continuing with “Jerry Maguire” (1996) and “Magnolia” (1999), Tom Cruise seemed destined to win an Oscar. However, despite the star’s acclaimed turns in films such as ‘The Last Samurai’ (2003) and ‘Tropic Thunder’ (2008), the Academy has shown little interest in recognizing his wide range of roles. . Partly due to a weaker acting field than in other years, his return in the “Top Gun” sequel has been on the bubble for consideration after earning a Critics’ Choice nomination. And as the film’s producer, the Hollywood luminary has two chances for recognition. Will the Academy’s largest branch of comedians be charmed by the high-altitude eye movements and voice-over behind the oxygen mask?
ALL EVERYWHERE AT THE SAME TIME, from left: co-directors Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, on set, 2022. ph: Allyson Riggs /© A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy of Everett Collection
Will it be an all-white formation?
The women have won the Best Director award for two consecutive years. And there has been significant progress with the spotlighting of directors of color, like Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”) and Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”). However, this year, the chances of diversity in the category seem slim, based on early warnings so far.
Pundits agree that two-time winner Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) is locked in for another nod. Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Todd Field (“Tár”) and Baz Luhrmann (“Elvis”) are also shoo-ins.
With just one spot remaining, hope rests with “Everything Everywhere All at Once” director duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to avoid a #DirectorsSoWhite outcry.
Meanwhile, Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”) are the only female directors with the momentum to cross the nomination threshold. But it doesn’t have to be one or the other. AMPAS can vote for both.
AMPAS nomination voting is open and closes Tuesday, January 17 at 5:00 p.m. PT.
See the latest movie predictions, across all 23 categories, in one place on Variety Oscar Collective. To see ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety Oscar Center.
To see the 2022-2023 Awards Season Schedule for all key dates and deadlines.