The 2023 Emmys lead actor’s dramatic predictions

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Variety The Awards Circuit section brings together all the news about awards and related content throughout the year, including the following: official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, hosted by Variety awards editor Clayton Davis. Predictions pages reflect the current race standings and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual competitor. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.

Visit the respective ceremony prediction pages via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMY | GRAMMYS | TONY

UPDATE: April 20, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

“The Last of Us” (HBO)
HBO

Weekly Commentary: Still no decision on where Brian Cox will campaign for “Succession,” but based on conversations with industry insiders, a lead dramatic acting run is likely in the cards, despite three screenings of episodes (confirmed). Essentially, the Scottish actor would become the Emmy version of Anthony Hopkins, who won the Best Actor Oscar with very limited screen time for ‘The Silence of the Lambs’ (1991).

There is a precedent. Christopher Lloyd was named lead dramatic actor for a single episode of “Road to Avonlea” in 1992.

Cox’s acclaimed performance as Logan Roy received numerous accolades for the HBO drama, including these two Emmy nominations for the second and third seasons for Lead Actor (Drama). He was nominated alongside his co-star Jeremy Strong, who plays his eldest son Kendall, and won for the show’s second season.

Emmy rules for 2023 state, “Only performers appearing in less than 50% of eligible episodes may submit in the guest performer categories.” Assuming Cox doesn’t appear in any of the remaining episodes, the 76-year-old Scottish actor will have three options to choose from. He can stay in lead actor (drama) with Strong, move up to supporting actor (drama) alongside Kieran Culkin, Matthew Macfadyen and Alan Ruck, or compete for guest actor recognition (drama), facing likely suitors Arian Moayed and Alexander Skarsgård (who could qualify for support this time around). If Cox appears in either of the other two episodes (in a flashback, for example), he would no longer be qualified to guest.

And then there’s Pedro Pascal, with three very different performances available for the Television Academy to consider this year. He has his offer as a guest comedy actor to host NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” and two spectacular spins in the sci-fi genre – Disney+’s “The Mandalorian” and HBO’s “The Last of Us.”

Pascal and the rest of the cast take on Saul Goodman, played by Bob Odenkirk, for the final season of “Better Call Saul” which aired last summer. While it’s fair to point out the show’s 46 series names, none of which resulted in a win, that’s the obvious hurdle the veteran actor has to overcome. Still, like past season winners across the Emmy spectrum, such as Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”), you can never be sure of Emmys sensibilities for a respected actor.

Voting for Emmy nominations takes place June 15-26. Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and subject to change.

And the expected nominees are:

  1. Paddy Considine — “Dragon House” (HBO)
  2. Harrison Ford — “1923” (Paramount+)
  3. Kevin Costner — “Yellowstone(Paramount Network)
  4. Kieran Culkin — “Succession” (HBO) **

Other high-level possibilities

  1. Matthew Rhys — “Perry Mason” (HBO)
  2. Dominica West — “The crown” (Netflix)
  3. Bryan Cranston — “Your Honor” (Show time)
  4. Antoine Starr — “The boys” (First video)
  5. Whitaker Forest — “Godfather of Harlem” (MGM+)
  6. Jeremy Renner — “Mayor of Kingstown” (Paramount+)
  7. Pedro Pascal — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
  8. Joshua Jackson — “Fatal attraction” (Paramount+)
  9. Gary Oldman — “slow horses” (Apple TV+)
  10. Karl Urban — “The boys” (First video)

All eligible titles (literate by network)**

** This listing or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 Category Winner: Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)

Emmy Awards Prediction Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGICAL SERIES | TV FILM | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEADING ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEADING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SECONDARY ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPT VARIETIES SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTION (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED FILM/TV) | SKETCHES OF VARIETY, SERIES, SPECIALS |

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

INTERIM GUEST, VOICE-OFF | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are presented by the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American prime-time television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (recognizes achievement in craftsmanship), and Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant contributions in engineering and technology). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy has over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.

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