Who will win and who should

“Kimberly Akimbo” received the fewest Tony Award nominations of the five new shows vying for Best Musical. However, you should expect those eight nominations to yield the most wins.

The only thing standing in the way of the show’s overwhelming success at the next Tony Awards are out-of-town hosts. They are the largest voting block of the awards and tend to honor more crowd-pleasing shows that may be promoted on their respective subscription series in Cleveland or St. Louis. Thankfully, your votes will likely be split evenly between “& Juliet,” “New York, New York,” “Shucked,” and “Some Like It Hot,” since there’s no consensus favorite among them. In other words, we won’t have a situation where some idiot show like “Spamalot” or “Thoroughly Modern Millie” wins the Tony for Best Musical.

“Kimberly Akimbo” isn’t just looking to win the Best Musical award. Many of the show’s nominees are also looking to take home the Tony, and include Victoria Clark (Best Actress in a Musical), Bonnie Mulligan (Best Supporting Actress in a Musical), Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire (Best Original Score). ) and Lindsay -Abaire (Best Book). The musical’s Jessica Stone has a good shot at winning Best Director of a Musical, but there’s stiff competition from Michael Arden, who directed “Parade.” The Tonys have a history of awarding this award to the director of a revival, and in the case of “Parade,” Arden’s work is likely to score a win for Best Musical Revival as well.

Justin Cooley for “Kimberly Akimbo” or Kevin Del Aguila for “Some Like It Hot” deserve the Tony for Best Featured Actor in a Musical. Cooley’s plaintive “Good Kid” and Del Aguila’s heartfelt “Fly, Mariposa, Fly” are two of the season’s standout songs. However, anything smooth and subtle can’t compete with Flonase’s explosion of noise that is “Independently Owned” as sung by Alex Newell on “Shucked.” Newell takes home this Tony.

Best Actor in a Musical is a close contest between J. Harrison Ghee in “Some Like It Hot” and Ben Platt in “Parade.” Since Platt already has a Tony, for “Dear Evan Hansen,” voters may want to help create a new star, and Ghee’s gender-fluid performance is very topical.

“Leopoldstadt” and Patrick Marber’s direction of Tom Stoppard’s Holocaust drama have secured Tonys for Best Play and Best Director of a Play. I much preferred “Ain’t No ‘Mo” and Stevie Walker-Webb’s kaleidoscopic direction of Jordan E. Cooper’s scathing comedy about racism, but few voters, let alone general viewers, saw the short-lived production. .

Not many more viewers saw Stephen McKinley Henderson’s exquisitely drawn portrayal of an embittered ex-cop in “Between Riverside and Crazy.” Henderson delivered the most memorable performance of the year. Instead, the Best Actor Tony will likely go to Sean Hayes for “Goodnight, Oscar.” He not only gives a very colorful performance, he also plays the piano. Hayes also has another thing going for him: The New York Times review of the actor and the play were decidedly frowned upon, and every year, the Tonys like to throw their own raspberries at the Old Gray Lady, and the Best Actor category is their best chance in 2023. Hayes wins. Tellingly, a recent times opinion piece on who “will and should” win the Tony did not mention Hayes.

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This year’s coin toss category is Outstanding Featured Actor in a Play, the contest is a three-way race between movie star Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”) and two actors whose shows still continue: Arian Moayed (“A Doll’s House”) and Brandon Uranowitz (“Leopoldstadt”). (Not that it makes any difference, but I’ll vote for David Zayas in “Cost of Living,” even though his sensitive portrayal of a caretaker is a leading role.)

Another surprise is who will be proclaimed Best Supporting Actress in a Play. It should be a contest between the outrageous Crystal Lucas-Perry (“Ain’t No Mo’) and the subtle Katy Sullivan (“Cost of Living”), but few voters saw those plays. Most likely, Miriam Silverman (” The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window”). Not only is her show still on, but the role of the arch-conservative sister has a history of being considered Tony-worthy: Frances Sternhagen was nominated for her role in the 1972 revival despite which the production closed on its opening night, and Alice Ghostley won the Tony in 1965 for her role in the original production of Lorraine Hansberry’s fledgling drama about clueless white people.

There is much less suspense regarding Best Actress in a Play. Jessica Chastain (“A Doll’s House”) seemed to have secured this award. And then came Jodie Comer (“Prima Facie”) with her solo performance of her as a lawyer who gets raped. eat wins

While “Topdog/Underdog” deserves to win for Best Revival of a Play, Tony is more likely to go to “A Doll’s House,” which continues to run.

See how it all unfolds on June 11 when the 76th Annual Tony Awards take place at the United Palace in New York City. They will air live on CBS from 8:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. ET, and will also stream live and on-demand on Paramount+.

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