Variety‘s Awards Circuit is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the the official predictions for the Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
Commentary: The 75th Emmy Awards ceremony marked the end of an 18-month cycle, finally coming to a close in January 2024 after a prolonged wait. The event saw multiple acclaimed series sweep the awards, including the final season of the HBO/Max drama “Succession,” the first comedy series statuette for FX/Hulu’s “The Bear,” and another win for Netflix in the limited series category with the darkly comedic thriller “Beef.”
Now, it’s time to look ahead to the 76th Emmys. However, following a six-month shutdown of the Hollywood industry due to the WGA and SAG strikes, how many shows will be returning?
In the drama category, the only nominee expected to return is Netflix’s “The Crown,” with its two-part final season. On the comedy side, the sophomore season of “The Bear” came out in Summer 2023 and has already won multiple Golden Globe statuettes. It will be joined by fellow returnee nominated shows “Abbott Elementary” from ABC and “Only Murders in the Building” from Hulu.
The most significant competition appears to be in the limited series categories, where veteran anthologies like “True Detective” and “Fargo” are expected to run alongside other star-packed entries.
Nonetheless, networks will be juggling multiple contenders to stand out in an increasingly noisy TV landscape.
HBO/Max is back with the third season of “Hacks,” providing another opportunity for Jean Smart to shine at the ceremony. Additionally, the final (maybe) season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm” could make its presence felt. The cable/streaming hybrid also boasts formidable drama contenders with the critically acclaimed (but recently canceled) “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” and the historical third season of “The Gilded Age.” However, HBO and Max seem particularly strong in the limited series category, notably with Stephen Frears’ political satire “The Regime” featuring Kate Winslet.
Unless a strong contender emerges, FX (via Hulu) could continue its winning streak this year with “The Bear.” A recent campaign switch of Ayo Edebiri from supporting to leading may not affect her winning chances after her Golden Globe victory. FX is also promoting the final season of “Reservation Dogs,” which now has a better shot at nabbing an Emmy nomination in a thinner field, along with the multiple-time nominated “What We Do in the Shadows.” Ryan Murphy’s “Feud: Capote Vs. the Swans,” the long-awaited “Shо̄gun” and “A Murder at the End of the World” are all potential forces in the limited series category.
In addition to “The Crown,” Netflix has a substantial slate that includes the new drama “3 Body Problem,” from the creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, best known for “Game of Thrones.” Netflix will also continue to push for Shawn Levy’s “All the Light We Cannot See,” in addition to the newly released “Griselda” with Sofia Vergara. The streeamer also has the comedy “The Gentlemen” from Guy Ritchie, starring recent “White Lotus” Emmy nominee Theo James. Moreover, there’s hope for “Girls5eva” to become a contender, a comedy that should have been a shoo-in when it was on Peacock.
Apple saw the run of “Ted Lasso” come to an end, and it’s still unclear where that show goes from here. Nonetheless, with big tentpoles such as “The Morning Show,” “Lessons in Chemistry,” “Masters of the Air” and “Slow Horses,” we suspect they’ll be just fine landing on multiple fronts.
Speaking of Peacock, the NBCU outlet seems well-equipped with an impressive limited series roster, including “Apples Never Fall” with recent Oscar nominee Annette Bening and Sam Neill, “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” with Jonah Hauer-King and Emmy darling Melanie Lynskey, and the next iteration of “Dr. Death,” this time with Edgar Ramirez. Under the NBC umbrella, they’ll also focus on comedies such as “Extended Family” and “Based on a True Story,” along with dramas like “Found” and the 25th season of “Law & Order: SVU.” And let’s not forget the actors from “Saturday Night Live.”
Amazon’s Prime Video will shine a deserved spotlight on writer and director Lulu Wang with her limited series “Expats,” starring Nicole Kidman. They’ll also explore the remake and video game adaptation space, which worked well for Max’s “The Last of Us.” Look out for the post-apocalyptic drama “Fallout” with Ella Purnell and Walton Goggins, and possibly Donald Glover’s reimagining of “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” alongside Maya Erskine.
Under the Disney parent company umbrella, Disney is entering with a few Marvel and Star Wars endeavors – “Ahsoka,” “Loki,” and “Echo.” Hulu is featuring “Only Murders,” while ABC has “Abbott.”
Starz hopes to get back onto the TV Academy’s radar with the Julianne Moore vehicle “Mary & George” while continuing to promote “Shining Vale” with Courteney Cox.
Paramount+ (and Showtime) is pinning its hopes on “Colin from Accounts” and “Frasier” to resonate with conventional members. They also have shows led by Oscar nominees, such as “The Curse” (with Emma Stone) and the final season of “Billions” (with Paul Giamatti). “Fellow Travelers” and “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” have already begun their awards campaigns.
AMC may have put “Better Call Saul” behind them, but they’re continuing with the second season of “Dark Winds” in the drama category and two limited series pushes: “Monsieur Spade” with Clive Owen and “Parish” with Giancarlo Esposito and Bradley Whitford.
These are the initial projections for the 76th Emmys. Please note that this information won’t be updated until April, just before the FYC (For Your Consideration) season kicks into high gear.
Note: Not all category and genre placements are yet to be confirmed .
Individual category pages with official rankings will be added at a later date.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.