“A&W,” Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey and Sam Dew, songwriters (Lana Del Rey)
“Anti-Hero,” Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift, songwriters (Taylor Swift)
“Butterfly,” Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson, songwriters (Jon Batiste)
“Dance the Night” (From “Barbie: The Album”) Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt, songwriters (Dua Lipa)
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein and Michael Pollack, songwriters (Miley Cyrus)
“Kill Bill,” Rob Bisel, Carter Lang and Solána Rowe, songwriters (SZA)
“Vampire,” Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo, songwriters (Olivia Rodrigo)
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie,” Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell, songwriters (Billie Eilish) ***
Will win: “What Was I Made For?”
Could win: “Flowers”; “Anti-Hero”
Voters are supposed to consider songwriting over production elements in this category… but do they, really, across the board? That’s up for question, eternally. But let’s suppose that most of them are putting more weight on actual songcraft, which, theoretically, at least, can favor a ballad over a bop. That’s one reason to go out on a limb and believe that Eilish (and her co-writer brother Finneas) might have a slightly better shot at coming out on top in song of the year than record of the year, even if Recording Academy members do assume that she’ll be double-bagging an Oscar and Grammy. With a song this phenomenally well-conceived and heart-tugging, they can’t hold its origins as assignment writing for Tinseltown against it, can they?
Yet, as with the other top four categories, just about anything could go here — including, certainly, a win for Cyrus, Swift or SZA. Or, for that matter, a first-time win in one of the top categories for Rodrigo, who has yet to win any of them besides best new artist? It feels overdue, even if she is only on her second album.