Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Netflix
Weekly Commentary (Updated July 9, 2024): On paper, best actress looks to be the most competitive race ahead of awards season. Awards teams must strategize multiple campaigns during the awards circuit, as many films feature more than one lead helming their stories.
Among those is Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” by Jacques Audiard, which won a combined best actress prize at the Cannes Film Festival. Karla Sofía Gascón and Zoe Saldaña were among the winning quartet. Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz are likely contenders for supporting roles, but seeing where Saldaña ends up competing will be interesting.
Another film from the streamer is Azazel Jacobs’ family drama “His Three Daughters,” featuring Natasha Lyonne, Carrie Coon and Elizabeth Olsen. The placement of the trio for awards consideration remains to be seen.
The leading ladies of “Wicked,” with previous Oscar nominees Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, are also ones to watch as they portray Elphaba and Galinda. Broadway originators Idina Menzel and Kristen Chenoweth competed as co-leads at the Tonys, and it will be intriguing if Universal follows the same approach. The last two co-leading nominees were Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon for “Thelma & Louise” (1991).
Other notable co-leads include Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton in Pedro Almodóvar’s “The Room Next Door” from Sony Pictures, with Moore likely in the lead and Swinton in a supporting role. The indie drama “Fancy Dance” features recent Oscar nominee Lily Gladstone and newcomer Isabel DeRoy-Olson. The British comedy “Wicked Little Letters” boasts hilarious performances from Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley.
Director John Crowley, who helped Saoirse Ronan secure her first lead actress bid for “Brooklyn” (2015), returns with “We Live in Time,” a romantic film led by Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield. Pugh, who received her first Oscar nomination for “Little Women” (2019), could be poised for awards success following the news of the TIFF premiere of this A24-distributed film.
Speaking of Ronan, she has two high-profile projects in the running this year. “The Outrun,” which she produced through her company Arcade Pictures (she and her partner Jack Lowden stepped down in Feb. 2024), premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to glowing reviews. Ronan plays Rona, a woman struggling with alcoholism who enters rehab after losing control of her life. While a formal release date and distributor have yet to be announced, it is expected soon. Ronan also has a prominent role in Steve McQueen’s upcoming World War II drama “Blitz,” which will open the BFI London Film Festival. There are rumors of a possible lead bid for Ronan’s role as Rita, a distraught mother searching for her missing son, but the film is said to be more of an ensemble piece. With four previous nominations but no wins, Ronan enters the race hoping for her first statuette. Is this finally her year?
Six-time nominee Amy Adams is also due for recognition. She’s leading Marielle Heller’s adaptation of “Nightbitch” from Searchlight, which is already receiving an honor via the TIFF Tribute Awards. She also has a role in Taika Waititi’s “Klara and the Son” from Sony, which could be released this year, further bolstering her chances.
Additionally, there are exciting performances from newcomers and established stars alike, including Zendaya (“Challengers”), Mikey Madison (“Anora”), Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), and Angelina Jolie (“Maria”).
It’s only just beginning.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
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Image Credit: Mubi And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (TBA) 2 Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) 3 Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 4 Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) 5 Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Pablo Larraín Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) 7 Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 8 Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24) 9 Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) 10 Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Kimberley French Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) 12 June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) 13 Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 14 Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 15 Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 16 Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 17 Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 18 Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions) 19 Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 20 Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Kyle Kaplan/Focus Features Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 22 Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) 23 Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 24 Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) 25 Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) 26 Noémie Merlant — “Emmanuelle” (Neon) 27 Tessa Thompson — “Hedda” (Amazon MGM) 28 Anne Hathaway — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM) 29 Olivia Colman — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) 30 Nathalie Emmanuel — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Performers (Best Actress)
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Gemma Chan — “The Actor” (Neon) **
- Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- Divya Prabha — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
- Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Marisa Abela — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
- Saoirse Ronan — “Blitz” (Apple Original Films) **
- Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24)
- Andra Day — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Margaret Qualley — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Julianne Moore — “Echo Valley” (Apple Original Films)
- Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) **
- Noémie Merlant — “Emmanuelle” (Neon)
- Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon)
- Isabel DeRoy-Olson — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) **
- Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Alicia Vikander — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- Brandy Norwood — “The Front Room” (A24)
- Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) **
- Tessa Thompson — “Hedda” (Amazon MGM)
- Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- Carrie Coon — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
- Natasha Lyonne — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
- Elizabeth Olsen — “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) **
- Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- Anne Hathaway — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
- Blake Lively — “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
- Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24)
- Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) **
- Jenna Ortega — “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures)
- Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Kristen Stewart — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- Nathalie Emmanuel — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Aubrey Plaza — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (TBA)
- Celeste Dalla Porta — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Stefania Sandrelli — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Danielle Deadwyler — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) **
- Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Riley Keough — “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
- Kerry Washington — “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan — “Spaceman” (Netflix) **
- Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “Tuesday” (A24)
- Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) **
- Ariana Grande — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) **
- Jessie Buckley — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Olivia Colman — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Lupita Nyong’o — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- Maya Hawke — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Pictures)
- Anna Kendrick — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
- Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
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More Information (Oscars: Best Actress)
Image Credit: Variety via Getty Images 2024 category winner: Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscars Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
