Will the Oscars answer “Conclave’s” prayers?
Edward Berger’s mystery thriller has been one of the buzziest films to emerge from the fall festivals. Adapted from Robert Harris’ 2016 novel, the film premiered at Telluride, where it received raves from attendees. Since then, its awards prospects have grown, especially following its Audience Award wins at the Mill Valley and Middleburg fests. Those regional accolades helped propel future best picture nominees such as “American Fiction” (2023) and “Belfast” (2021) and best picture winner “Green Book” (2018). “Conclave” has popular appeal, but will its religious themes be an advantage or a potential hurdle in the Oscar race?
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit.
Rossellini with “Conclave” director Edward Berger
Focus Features
Films that explore issues of faith, and the Catholic Church’s tangled history, have long held a unique place in Hollywood. Critics, and sometimes audiences, have responded to the way they explore moral and spiritual questions, which has led to Oscar attention. Take William Friedkin’s 1973 horror classic “The Exorcist.” Based on William Peter Blatty’s novel about a young girl possessed by a demon and the two priests trying to save her, the film became one of the highest-grossing horror films ever. Despite being in a genre often ignored by the Academy, “The Exorcist” received 10 Oscar nominations, winning for screenplay and sound.
Another notable entry is Roland Joffé’s 1986 drama “The Mission,” with Robert De Niro. Set in 18th-century South America, the film follows Jesuit priests who establish a mission among the indigenous Guaraní people. Although it was a financial failure, the drama picked up seven Oscar noms, including best picture. Yet, its slow pacing and solemn tone limited its mainstream appeal — a challenge “Conclave” appears to sidestep with its thriller-driven narrative.
More recently, Tom McCarthy’s 2015 drama “Spotlight,” which details the true story of the Boston Globe’s investigation into systemic sexual abuse within the Catholic Church, won best picture and original screenplay. The film painted an unflattering picture of religious leaders, but its themes of truth and justice resonated strongly with voters.
Other movies that offer a more balanced portrayal of faith — such as Fernando Meirelles’ “The Two Popes” (2019) or Martin Scorsese’s passion project “Silence” (2016) — struggled to find traction. “The Two Popes” received nominations for the performances of Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce and for its script, but failed to be a best picture contender. “Silence,” like Scorsese’s two other religious films — “The Last Temptation of Christ” (1988) and “Kundun” (1997) — was almost entirely overlooked by the Academy.
That probably won’t be the fate of “Conclave.” Its gripping story and high-stakes Vatican setting offer audiences a fast-paced, accessible take on religious politics. And it has the potential to stand out in this year’s awards race. Ralph Fiennes, largely absent from the Oscar conversation since his nods for “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “The English Patient” (1996), could be due for recognition. Co-stars Stanley Tucci and Isabella Rossellini, both respected actors with surprisingly few nominations between them, stand as likely candidates in the supporting categories. In addition, Peter Straughan’s screenplay, Stéphane Fontaine’s cinematography and Nick Emerson’s editing are stellar, helping to keep audiences on the edge of their seats. And there’s nothing the Academy loves more than being entertained.
Following the Oscar-winning success of Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which secured four statuettes, “Conclave” is shaping up to be Focus Features’ leading awards hopeful.
The arthouse subsidiary of Universal also has on its docket Robert Eggers’ horror remake “Nosferatu,” Jeff Nichols’ motorcycle drama “The Bikeriders” and Sean Wang’s directorial debut “Dìdi.” Sixteen Focus movies have garnered 16 best picture nominations since its inception in 2002. These include presumed second-place finishers such as Sofia Coppola’s “Lost in Translation” (2004), Ang Lee’s “Brokeback Mountain” (2005), Gus Van Sant’s “Milk” (2008) and Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” (2022).
Ultimately, religiously themed films that combine thoughtful exploration with dynamic storytelling tend to leave a lasting impact. Whether gaining attention for their controversies or lauded for their art, these films engage viewers in a complex dialogue about faith, morality and power. Focus Features will indeed be saying a little prayer for Oscar gold.
Below are this week’s Oscar predictions (in alphabetical order) in all 23 categories. For comprehensive rankings, go to each category page, which will be updated throughout the weekend.
John Lithgow stars as Cardinal Tremblay in director Edward Berger’s CONCLAVE
Philippe Antonello/Focus Feature
Best Picture
“Anora”
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“The Room Next Door”
“Wicked”
Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora”
Edward Berger, “Conclave”
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Ridley Scott, “Gladiator II”
Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Daniel Craig, “Queer”
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Paul Mescal, “Gladiator II”
Actress
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Tilda Swinton, “The Room Next Door”
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Saoirse Ronan, “Blitz”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Original Screenplay
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“Hard Truths”
“A Real Pain”
“September 5”
Adapted Screenplay
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
“The Room Next Door”
Animated Feature
“Flow”
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
“The Wild Robot”
Production Design
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Wicked”
Cinematography
“The Brutalist”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Nosferatu”
Costume Design
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Maria”
“Nosferatu”
“Wicked”
Film Editing
“Anora”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
Sound
“Blitz”
“The Brutalist”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Gladiator II”
Visual Effects
“Dune: Part Two”
“Gladiator II”
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Mufasa: The Lion King”
“Wicked”
Original Score
“The Brutalist”
“Challengers”
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Room Next Door”
“The Wild Robot”
Original Song
“Winter Coat” from “Blitz”
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez”
“Beyond” from “Moana 2”
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
“Harper and Will Go West” from “Will & Harper”
Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“Dahomey”
“Daughters”
“No Other Land”
“Sugarcane”
International Feature
“Dahomey” from Senegal
“Emilia Pérez” from France
“Grand Tour” from Portugal
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany
Animated Short
“Above Ground”
“An Almost Christmas Story”
“A Guest From Elsewhere”
“Maybe Elephants”
“Remember Us”
Documentary Short
“Chasing Roo”
“Denial”
“The Final Copy of Ilon Specht”
“Julia’s Stepping Stones”
“Wings of Dust”
Live Action Short
“Anuja”
“Bogotá Story”
“Motherland”
“1Up”
“Say Hi After You Die”