Three films in the top 15 grossing films of last year were nominated, while three others combined for less than $30 million domestically.
“The Way of Water” and “Maverick,” of course, are the highest-grossing movies of the year, combined for more than $1.3 billion domestically and nearly $3.5 billion globally. “Elvis” is lower on the list with $151 million domestically and $287 million worldwide, but it was able to reignite interest in its legendary theme and generate consistent engagement from viewers over 50.
But at the other end of the spectrum are Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans,” Martin McDonagh’s “The Banshees of Inisherin” and Todd Field’s “Tár,” three critically acclaimed films that collectively grossed less than $30 million. in North America. Joining them from the art scene are Sarah Polley’s “Women Talking,” currently in limited release in theaters with $1.1 million in gross; Ruben Ostlund’s Palme D’Or-winning Triangle of Sadness, which grossed $4.2 million domestically last fall, and Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front, which is streaming exclusively on Netflix.
“Fabelmans” and “Inisherin,” in particular, show just how much prestige films have declined in terms of theatrical performance compared to previous Spielberg and McDonagh films that garnered Oscar nods.
In 2018, Spielberg’s historical thriller “The Post” grossed $81 million domestically and $193 million worldwide, beginning with a limited release during the holiday season before expanding to 2,850 theaters in mid-January.
“The Fabelmans,” by contrast, has grossed just $14.9 million in North America and needs a strong overseas run in the coming weeks to recoup its $40 million production budget.
Spielberg’s autobiographical drama is the kind of reliable and accessible adult show that could make a decent amount of money even in the late 2010s, but its number of screens never exceeded 1,200 theaters. Its five-day Thanksgiving weekend total of $3.1 million from 638 theaters was surpassed by the $4.2 million earned by the Tom Hanks drama “A man named Otto” when it had almost the same number of screens in early January.
Box office editor Daniel Loria believes that the slower release Universal attempted didn’t help “The Fabelmans,” but he also believes the film’s premise didn’t align with what audiences want, even in an accessible adult drama.
“Even before the pandemic, I think Spielberg making a movie about his childhood would have been a harder sell than ‘The Post’ or ‘Bridge of Spies,’” he said. “Those movies had an element of suspense that made them more appealing to audiences than a quiet movie about Spielberg’s family and how he got into movies.”
As of November 2017, McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” had a total of $5.8 million over Thanksgiving weekend and $54.5 million in North America. The film never made the top 5 on the box office charts nor did it have a screen count of more than 1620 theaters, but it didn’t have to. It was able to maintain a low but steady turnout through Oscar Sunday, the kind that award hopefuls aim to have when they hit theaters in early November.
But in a post-COVID world, the shortening of the theatrical window, dwindling interest in seeing blockbuster films in theaters, and the plummeting cultural relevance of award shows have quickly removed all the factors that allowed a film like “Three Billboards” find blockbuster. “The Banshees of Inisherin” has proven just that, with a peak screen count of just under 900 theaters and a total weekend peak of just $2 million.
Released in late October, “Inisherin” was all but out of theaters across the US by Thanksgiving, grossing $9.3 million domestically. Like “The Fabelmans,” Searchlight will try to find some additional theatrical revenue from foreign moviegoers with a post-Oscar nomination international release in markets like Italy, Spain, Brazil and Scandinavia. But even in the UK and Ireland, where the film performed its best, its $11.3 million total failed to reach the $20.9 million “Three Billboards.”
The market for the kind of critically acclaimed dramas that regularly make Best Picture lists has continued to be pressured from all sides, with studios struggling to figure out how to market such an intellectual affair, or even in-between in the case of “Fabelmans.” “. — to an audience that feels more comfortable watching this type of film on streaming or on digital demand. And with the Oscars losing their cultural clout, even that audience may be dwindling as well.
“Once you cut that theatrical window, you take away the time that movies like ‘Inisherin’ need to build word of mouth to be successful in theaters. This is how someone who saw a movie at a platform premiere in Los Angeles tells their Central American relatives during the holidays that they should see when it comes to the theaters where they live,” Loria said.
Ironically, the only Best Picture contender to defy the categorization between major studio, blockbuster release and struggling blockbuster is the one with the most nominations: Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which last spring it became A24’s first release. to gross over $100 million worldwide.
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s genre flick didn’t top the year-end charts, but it far surpassed its independent weight class thanks purely to organic word of mouth. Released in April 2022, well past the usual awards season release window, it didn’t need Oscar buzz to garner interest. Rather, like “Top Gun: Maverick,” it garnered the Oscar buzz because of its sheer popularity, something that was a regular occurrence before the tastes of mainstream and Academy voters diverged dramatically.
While there was already some mass appeal, 2023 slate-wide release offerings that could find their way onto next year’s list of nominees: Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” come to Mind: There’s no guarantee that a movie like “Top Gun: Maverick” or “Everything Everywhere” will prove to be both a box office hit and a big awards player.
What is more certain, given recent history and the likes of the Academy, is that a movie from Toronto or Venice will get that nomination. Maybe it’s Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” or Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic “Maestro.” Maybe it’s another fashion festival title that’s not currently on anyone’s radar.
But when it comes time for that kind of movie to hit theaters, all signs point to it producing the box office scraps that garnered “The Fabelmans” rather than the modestly successful Best Picture winners of pre-pandemic memory. .
“The new formula that studios and distributors have come up with in the wake of the pandemic is not working for these types of festival films,” Loria said. “It’s the system that has come together in response to streaming demand and to draw audiences into theaters for more populist movies, but the more artistic and thought-provoking stuff is falling behind.”
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