With COVID delays no longer a factor, all parties are hoping that belt-tightening among streamers won’t weaken potential bidding wars.
Except for Amazon’s Prime Video and Apple TV+, which arguably can still outbid, studios and streamers might be less willing to spend money on high-profile but commercially questionable titles. At the same time, fears of an upcoming Writers Guild strike could lead to more wealth being distributed towards more movies in another twist on content spending for content’s sake.
Liam O’Donnell, the independent filmmaker behind the popular direct-to-DVD/VOD “Skyline” sequels, argued that “such factors generally don’t affect the biggest or best movies. It’s the ones a little lower on the totem pole that may be affected.”
What’s on the auction block this year?
This year’s most talked about titles include an adaptation of Kristen Roupenian’s viral New York story, “Cat Person”; the Anne Hathaway/Thomasin McKenzie 1960s women’s prison melodrama “Eileen”; the Chiwetel Ejiofor/Emilia Clarke sci-fi drama “The Pod Generation”; “Theatre Field” by Ben Platt; and Randall Park’s directorial debut, “Shortcomings.”
Throw in a host of other titles on sale, including perennial surprises that lack any big stars or source material needed for pre-festival attention. On the face of it, how will those titles play out in a market with a long history of overpaying for critically acclaimed and ultimately ignored niche films that were crowd-pleasing?
A prominent executive who works on both sides of the distribution business argued that the market has corrected itself. “They will not let prices get out of control,” said this executive. “Step [generally] it will not be as excessive and immediate, with more conventional deals in days or weeks instead of hours.”
“Even when theater returns, commercially and in terms of prestige,” another source noted, “mainstream studios may be less willing to spend big money on what might be little-seen critical darlings.”
Even some of the livelier festival titles from last year, like “Dual”, “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.” and “Breaking” essentially came and went, despite the quality, barely a whisper.
Big Fashion Movie Sales Can Still Happen
Outrageously priced Sundance acquisitions have been a part of the festival at least since Miramax reportedly paid $10 million for “Happy Texas” in 1999. Sundance buyers venture out each year in hopes of finding the next “The Big Sick,” “Little Miss Sunshine” or “Memento,” but they often hook up to the next “Hamlet 2,” “Patti Cake$” or “Birth of a Nation.”
The streaming wars created a temporary normality during previous years where massive spending was a sign of strength and commitment to a streaming-focused future. The COVID pandemic meant studios were desperate for movies to fill their direct-to-consumer or theatrical slates. Both circumstances justified studios like Apple TV+ spending $25 million on “Coda” in 2021 and then $15 million on “Cha Cha Real Smooth” in 2022.
Now that real revenue is being demanded by investors and shareholders, the content arms race no longer provides an excuse for, say, Warner Bros. to pay $15 million in 2019 for, again quality notwithstanding, the theatrical title “Blinded by the Light”. However, for streamers with massive coffers, outbidding a bit for potential success, whether through genuine interest or a metaphorical inflection, may be little more than a rounding error.
BoulderLight Pictures partner Raphael Margules stated that “for these big streamers who want to make a statement that they’re still in the game, spending $10-$15 million on a movie is the equivalent of an episode of TV.”
Does fear attack?
As for the dreaded WGA strike, the desire for full movies, or at least full scripts, might assuage some wasteful sensibilities.
“It’s not so much that fears can turn a maybe into a yes,” noted one distribution executive, “but that distributors can watch a movie and then ask if that filmmaker has any other finished scripts in his desk drawer.”
Cinetic Media co-head of sales Jason Ishikawa noted that while “distributors need content to flow through pipelines,” the notion of overbuying or under-demanding due to fears of a work stoppage “It has not been communicated to the mandates of the acquisition groups.”
Sundance is all about “discovery”
Margules argued in sentiments shared by nearly everyone else that “Sundance is as much about discovering bold new filmmakers and exciting new talent as it is about discovering that great movie.”
While “Son of Rambow” in 2007 stumbled commercially, Will Poulter went on to fortune and glory. Director Craig Jennings, who had previously directed “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,” would eventually direct both Illumination and Universal’s blockbuster films, “Sing.”
O’Donnell noted that “Sundance is more focused, compared to Cannes or AFM, on full-length movies that just need distribution and attention.”
“No one has ever said, ‘We’re going to sell the next ‘Skyline’ at Sundance,’” he said.
Ishikawa, whose business is mainly focused on documentaries like this year’s “Invisible Beauty” and non-fiction titles, argued that streaming platforms had proven to be “pandemic-proof” and that distributors would always have to overbid for the right. awards contender or potential commercial success.
But of course he is a salesman.
