With 32 critics and industry awards handed out so far, voting for the Oscar nomination is just 10 days away. So where is it at the top of the new year? The Palm Springs Film Festival kicks off later this week, and the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards will soon mark the first televised ceremonies of the season.
Will “The Fabelmans” bring director Steven Spielberg his third statuette? Is everything locked and loaded for Ke Huy Quan? Will early favorites like Brendan Fraser go all the way? Who in God’s name will win the lead actress and supporting actress? Who are the potential surprise nominees that could crop up in recent days? Here is the tally of the rewards earned so far.
Best Picture
- “Everything everywhere at the same time” – 16
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – 5
- “She said” and “Tár” – 2
A24’s multiverse dramedy was a critical darling with huge wins, including the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (where it tied with “Tár”). It’s no surprise given the love for the feature since its inception. Whether the Daniels tickle the imagination of the Academy as a whole has been the biggest question mark, no matter how passionate Film Twitter makes it. But who can blame them for being so optimistic about their chances (at least on paper)? Box office success is the critical leader in five categories and second in tally in four others. But one fact Oscar fans tend to forget: Critics don’t vote at the Oscars. They provide a roadmap to the destination, but the Oscars can go their own way (and they almost always do).
This is still a very open race where the “Banshees” could catch fire later down the road or an audience like “Top Gun: Maverick” could take full advantage of a preferential voting system. While “Tár” has only won two wins so far, LAFCA and New York Film Critics are important. That bodes well for Todd Field, who is looking for a nod.
Keep an eye out for “She Said”, who remains a mysterious entity to consider, especially after his surprising mention in the AFI Top 10.
Direction
- Daniels (“Everywhere All At Once”) – 16
- Todd Field (“Tár”) – 3
- Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), Sarah Polley (“Talking Women”) and Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”) – 2
The Daniels have performed brilliantly on the awards circuit, winning numerous awards to go along with top image wins. I’ve said publicly that their route to the movie winning the top Oscar award is if the Academy feels a duo should be awarded. Is it impossible for the team to be recognized? Absolutely not.
If the Daniels can clinch a Golden Globe win, making them the first directing duo to win with the 80-year-old group, their odds could increase dramatically.
Best actor
- Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) – 16
- Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) – 9
Farrell and Fraser are the only contenders to win more than one Critics’ Choice Award this season. Bill Nighy’s victory at LAFCA for the main performance could continue to give him steam ahead of the final days of SAG Awards voting. He selected key names for a Globe and Critics Choice.
It should be noted that Austin Butler’s turn in “Elvis” and Gabriel LaBelle in “The Fabelmans” each won two outstanding awards on the circuit.
Best Actress
- Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere At Once”) – 15
- Cate Blanchett (“Tar”) – 11
- Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) – 2
A close race if ever there was one, with Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh pulling away from the peloton. Danielle Deadwyler’s two wins will hopefully keep her on the radar for a while. The only other women to earn mentions are Vicky Krieps for “Bodice” (which may have helped the film become an international feature) and Rosy McEwen for “Blue Jean” (a potential BAFTA favorite).
Supporting actor
- Ke Huy Quan (“Everywhere At Once”) – 24
- Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) – 2
When Ke Huy Quan won the Gotham Award for Best Supporting Performance, it was the symbolic kickoff of his mainstream campaign. He earned it in turn as the loveable Waymond Wang in the Daniels’ martial arts show. His competitor seems to be the Irish musician of Brendan Gleeson in the antics of Martin McDonagh. Only Gleeson and Quan were named among the tracked precursors.
supporting actress
- Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) – 9
- Janelle Monáe (“Glass Onion”) – 4
- Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”) – 3
A surprising turn of events was Kerry Condon’s fiery turn in ‘Banshees’ being the most awarded on the circuit so far, but that makes sense when you consider that many of these organizations vote with a preferential voting system. . It’s easy to see Condon’s performance as a constant no. 2 and no. 3 choices, each with different favorites. The same could be said for Janelle Monáe’s double character duty.
Stephanie Hsu’s team hopes the young ‘Everything Everywhere’ breakout can join her co-star Jamie Lee Curtis on the Oscar ballot, especially with the third most wins of the season. Notably, she also has two wins for a breakthrough, which we’re not counting in this race’s tally.
To underscore the category’s unsung trajectory, 11 different actresses have won awards with Curtis and Keke Palmer (“Nope”) as the only ones to have more than one. Other notables include Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”), Jessie Buckley (“Women Talking”), Hong Chau (“The Whale”), Dolly De Leon (“Triangle of Sadness”) and Nina Hoss ( “Tár”).
To see ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety Oscar Center.
The top three artisan chefs are also listed below (if applicable).
Note: Not all organizations distribute wins for the corresponding category. For “script” winners only, we’ve applied it to where it competes and only named the top three if there’s more than one win for the film.
Original screenplay
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” – 15
- “Everything everywhere at the same time” – 10
- “Tar” – 3
Adapted scenario
- “Talking Women” – 5
- “She Said” – 3
- “Glass Onion” and “The Whale” – 2
Animated feature
- “Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro” – 14
- “Marcel the shell with shoes” – 8
- “Getting Red” – 3
production design
Cinematography
- “Top Gun: Maverick” – 15
- “No” – 3
- “Decision to Leave” – 2
costume design
Film editing
- “Everything everywhere at the same time” – 10
- “After Sun” – 3
Make-up and hairstyle
- No film has won more than one award so far. The only film to still win a win in the announced shortlist for the Oscars is “All Quiet on the Western Front.”
His
- No film has won more than one award so far. None of the 10 films still in the shortlist for the Oscars has yet won an award.
Visual effects
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” – 5
- “Everything everywhere at the same time” – 2
Original score
- “The Batman” and “Babylon” – 5
- “RRR” – 4
- “Pinocchio by Guillermo del Toro” – 2
original song
- No film has won more than one award so far. None of the 15 songs still in the shortlist for the Oscars have yet won an award.
Documentary feature film
- “All Beauty and Bloodshed” – 8
- “Good Night Oppy” – 7 (not shortlisted at Oscars)
- “Fire of Love” – 6
International feature
- “RRR” – 9 (not submitted by India, but competing in general categories)
- “Decision to Leave” – 7
- “EO” – 3
first director
- Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”) – 12 (a possible first DGA lead)
Breakthrough performer
- Austin Butler (“Elvis”) – 6
- Stephanie Hsu (“Everywhere All At Once”) & Gabriel LaBelle (“The Fabelmans”) – 2
Whole
- “Glass Onion” – 7
- “Talking Women” – 5
- “Everything everywhere at the same time” – 2
2023 ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS
BEST PHOTO | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORT ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCENARIO | ADAPTED SCENARIO | ANIMATED FILM | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIR | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SHEET | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FILM | INTERNATIONAL FILE | ANIMATION SHORT | SHORT DOCUMENTARY | SHORT LIVE ACTION SHORT