For an awards season that is supposed to be back to normal, things don’t feel very normal as Oscar nominations approach.
In-person events are the norm, but COVID-19 lingers. Movies are in theaters, but often not for long — and the few monster hits can’t make up for the dozens of movies with mediocre box office returns. And the Academy, larger and more international than ever, is a giant question mark that seems likely to throw a lot of surprises at us when the nominees are unveiled on Tuesday morning in Los Angeles.
For now, here are our best guesses for who’ll come out on top in this anything-but-normal year.
Best Picture
Six or seven films seem to be locked in as Best Picture nominees, starting with “The Fabelmans,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” You can probably throw in “Tár,” the consensus critics’ favorite, and “Elvis,” buoyed by Austin Butler’s sure-to-be-nominated performance. Then maybe you get to “Avatar: The Way of Water.” Too big to fail? Maybe.
That leaves three slots, for which there are lots of contenders and to my mind no certainty at all. “Women Talking” once seemed strong, and “The Whale” and “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” all scored key Producers Guild nominations. But will the increasingly international Academy look for a non-English-language film, the way they often have in recent years? If so, the German film “All Quiet on the Western Front” has been making waves in below-the-line circles and dominated the BAFTA nominations, and the Indian sensation “RRR” has stirred up genuine passion (and even a bit of hysteria) among people who’ve seen it. “Triangle of Sadness” is in English but it’s from Swedish director Ruben Östlund, and it has played well across the board since winning in Cannes.
Then there’s “The Woman King” and “Babylon,” which have scale and scope on their side.
Predicted nominees:
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
“Triangle of Sadness”
“The Whale”
Watch out for: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “RRR”
Best Director
The Directors Guild, usually a pretty accurate Oscar predictor, nominated Steven Spielberg, Todd Field, Martin McDonagh, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert and, in their biggest surprise, Joseph Kosinski for “Top Gun: Maverick.” But the DGA and Oscars’ defiantly singular Directors Branch usually differ on one nominee, and Kosinski is the kind of commercial filmmaker who is often bypassed at the Oscars in favor of an international director.
But which international director? Edward Berger is a possibility for “All Quiet on the Western Front” if that film lands a Best Picture nomination, and so is S.S. Rajamouli for “RRR.” Ruben Östlund’s chances would be buoyed if his film lands a Best Picture nomination, while Charlotte Wells’ “Aftersun” is picking up steam and could be an intriguing dark horse for a year in which female directors have been left out of most big nominations. (Which is not to say that Sarah Polley and Gina Prince-Bythewood aren’t in the mix here, too.)
And, oh yeah, there’s James Cameron for “Avatar: The Way of Water” and Baz Luhrmann for “Elvis,” whose omissions by the DGA doesn’t mean they’re out of the picture by any means. Even Spielberg isn’t safe at this point.
Predicted nominees:
Todd Field, “Tár”
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ruben Ostlund, “Triangle of Sadness”
Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Watch out for: James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water”; Baz Luhrmann, “Elvis”
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, Bill Nighy … and then who? All the heat generated by “Top Gun: Maverick” does not seem to have rubbed off on Tom Cruise, who seems as if he ought to be the favorite for that fifth spot but is instead waging a battle against Adam Sandler for “Hustle,” Paul Mescal for “Aftersun,” Jeremy Pope for “The Inspection,” Tom Hanks for “A Man Called Otto” and Gabriel LaBelle for “The Fabelmans,” among others. Hanks could be the only one with the star power to unseat Cruise, which would be poetic justice: After losing out on nominations when everybody thought he was going to get them for “Captain Phillips,” “Saving Mr. Banks” and “The Post,” it’d be fitting for him to be the dark-horse nominee this year.
Predicted nominees:
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Tom Hanks, “A Man Called Otto”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
Watch out for: Tom Cruise, “Top Gun: Maverick”; Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Best Actress
In this case, there seems to be a clear Top 2 in Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, probably in that order. Danielle Deadwyler became an immediate contender with “Till” and seems likely to be nominated. Viola Davis and Margot Robbie are big and bold in “The Woman King” and “Babylon,” respectively. Then there’s Michelle Williams, who may have hurt her chances by (correctly) positioning herself as lead rather than supporting, and Ana de Armas, whom everyone loves in a movie that everyone hates, “Blonde.” Her SAG nomination came as something of a shock, but her Oscar nod may not.
Predicted nominees:
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Cate Blanchett, “Tár”
Danielle Deadwyler, “Till”
Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Watch out for: Viola Davis, “The Woman King”; Margot Robbie, “Babylon”
Best Supporting Actor
The supporting categories could be loaded up with actors from a handful of movies, with “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “The Fabelmans” both likely to supply a pair of nominees — if voters are OK with putting one actor with a sizable role and another with a much smaller one in the same category.
Predicted nominees:
Paul Dano, “The Fabelmans”
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Watch out for: Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway”; Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”
Best Supporting Actress
This category could have been filled with actresses from “Women Talking,” but that movie may have had too many great performances for its own good when it comes to awards.
Predicted nominees:
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Dolly de Leon, “Triangle of Sadness”
Watch out for: Hong Chau, “The Whale”; Nina Hoss, “Tár”
Best Adapted Screenplay
If it somehow gets shut out of the acting categories, “Women Talking” is a sure thing for writing.
Predicted nominees:
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Living”
“She Said”
“The Whale”
“Women Talking”
Watch out for: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Top Gun: Maverick”
Best Original Screenplay
The Writers Branch of the Academy likes to get more adventurous with its picks than most other branches, which should help put “Aftersun” in this category with other high-profile contenders.
Predicted nominees:
“Aftersun”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Tár”
Watch out for: “Elvis,” “Triangle of Sadness”
Best Cinematography
The American Society of Cinematographers usually predicts four of the five Oscar nominees; we’re guessing that the ASC’s choice of “Bardo” is replaced by the Academy going for “The Fabermans” and its legendary DP, Janusz Kaminski.
Predicted nominees:
“The Batman”
“Elvis”
“Empire of Light”
“The Fabelmans”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Watch out for: “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
Best Film Editing
This category used to be a strong Best Picture indicator, which is why “The Fabelmans” could get in along with a quartet of more conventionally propulsive films.
Predicted nominees:
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Watch out for: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Best Production Design
Here’s a category where size will matter. It will be full of films that create entire worlds — literally, in the case of “Avatar.”
Predicted nominees:
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Babylon”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Watch out for: “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” “The Fabelmans”
Best Costume Design
There has to be a movie about clothes in this category, doesn’t there? Enter “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris.”
Predicted nominees:
“Babylon”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Elvis”
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”
Watch out for: “The Fabelmans,” “Living”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
This category often contains a film not nominated in any other category, which this year could be David Cronenberg’s deliciously creepy “Crimes of the Future.”
Predicted nominees:
“The Batman”
“Blonde”
“Crimes of the Future”
“Elvis”
“The Whale”
Watch out for: “Babylon,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Best Original Score
John Williams gets to break his own record as the most nominated living person.
Predicted nominees:
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Babylon”
“The Fabelmans”
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Women Talking”
Watch out for: “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Woman King”
Best Original Song
Now that Diane Warren has been given the first ever Honorary Oscar for songwriting, will the Music Branch feel as if they can take a year off from nominating her? Don’t count on it. The fact that she was shortlisted for “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman,” a film that few voters have probably even heard of, shows just how much the branch loves her and will continue to vote for her. “RRR” and “White Noise” contain two of the most delightful musical sequences of the year, but will the three-minute clips on the voters’ website convey enough of those lengthy numbers?
Predicted nominees:
“Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman” (written by Diane Warren, performed by Sofia Carson)
“Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (written by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz and Guillermo del Toro, performed by Gregory Mann)
“Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (written by Lady Gaga, Bloodpop and Benjamin Rice, performed by Lady Gaga)
“Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (written by Tems, Ludwig Goransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler, performed by Rihanna)
“Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (written by M.M. Keeravani, Kala Bhairav and Rahul Sipligun, performed by Vishal Mishra and Rahul Sipligunj)
Watch out for: “Nothing Is Lost” from “Avatar: The Way of Water”; “New Body Rhumba” from “White Noise”
Best Sound
Big, loud movies used to be nominated for Best Sound Editing and musicals for Best Sound Mixing. With the two categories now combined, one music-dominated film will sneak in.
Predicted nominees:
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“Elvis”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Watch out for: “Babylon,” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Best Visual Effects
Late in the game, the “Top Gun” team changed its message from “We did all our flying for real!” to “Here’s all the stuff the VFX artists contributed!” That may have been enough to squeeze the film into a lineup dominated by more typical effects extravaganzas.
Predicted nominees:
“Avatar: The Way of Water”
“The Batman”
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”
“Top Gun: Maverick”
Watch out for: “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore,” “Jurassic World Dominion”
Best Animated Feature
Oscar voters in this category love stop-motion animation, but will they nominate three stop-motion films? When the three are “Pinocchio,” “Marcel the Shell” and “Wendell & Wild,” they might.
Predicted nominees:
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
“Turning Red”
“Wendell & Wild”
Watch out for: “Inu-Oh,” “Strange World”
Best International Feature Film
The new voting system didn’t produce a single surprise on the shortlist, so maybe the nominees will be equally predictable. But members can’t vote unless they’ve seen all 15 semi-finalists, which always makes things tougher to pick. The Irish entry, “The Quiet Girl,” could charm its way onto the list.
Predicted nominees:
Argentina: “Argentina, 1985”
Belgium: “Close”
Germany: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Poland: “EO”
South Korea: “Decision to Leave”
Watch out for: Ireland: “The Quiet Girl”; Mexico: “Bardo”
Best Documentary Feature
There seems to be a Top 4, with “Bad Axe” surging at the right time to join them as a nominee.
Predicted nominees:
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“Bad Axe”
“Fire of Love”
“Navalny”
Watch out for: “Moonage Daydream,” “Last Flight Home”
Best Documentary Short
“Nuisance Bear” has won the most, “Halout” has taken some key awards and the rest are more uncertain.
Predicted nominees:
“The Flagmakers”
“Halout”
“Holding Moses”
“The Martha Mitchell Effect”
“Nuisance Bear”
Watch out for: “The Elephant Whisperers,” “Stranger at the Gate”
Best Animated Short
The 15 shortlisted films included an adaptation of a bestselling book (“The Boy, the Mole … ”), a Student Academy Award winner (“An Ostrich Told Me … ”) and a film from two previous nominees (“The Flying Sailor”).
Predicted nominees:
“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
“The Flying Sailor”
“Ice Merchants”
“New Moon”
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”
Watch out for: “My Year of Dicks,” “Passenger”
Best Live-Action Short
The shortlist didn’t contain a single film from the United States, with “Le Pupille” director Alice Rohrwacher and producer Alfonso Cuarón the best-known filmmakers in the category.
Predicted nominees:
“Almost Home”
“An Irish Goodbye”
“Ivalu”
“Le Pupille”
“Nakam”
Watch out for: “The Lone Wolf,” “Plastic Killer”