The Warner Bros. discovery streamer needs to tread carefully whether it has to cut its catalog in the future or find another big hit to spur demand
HBO Max recently announced another round of cancellations and removal of shows from its platform, echoing the first wave of cuts that stunned fans in August. At the time, a hugely successful”house of the dragonThe premiere helped offset the loss of the show being removed from HBO Max that month. Now that demand for that massive hit has subsided, we’re starting to see the effects of these decisions affect top-level demand for HBO Max’s catalog.
Overall demand for HBO Max’s catalog of shows was relatively flat from July to October. The first season of “House of the Dragon” aired weekly from August 21 to October 23, and the August cuts helped offset any drop in demand. In November though, overall demand for shows on HBO Max was down about 4% compared to July, according to data from Parrot Analytics, which takes consumer research, streaming, downloads and social media into account.
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Total US Demand for HBO Max Shows, July-November 2022 (Parrot Analytics)
When we looked at the first round of cuts announced in August, we measured that the total demand for series being cut was 2.1% of demand for all series on HBO Max at that time. To put this into perspective, viewers garnered roughly the same amount of attention on ‘Game of Thrones’ that month.
The latest round of cuts announced this month are on a similar scale to the last one. Looking at the total demand in November for all affected shows, they comprised 2.7% of the total demand for all shows on HBO Max that month. Without another hit on the scale of “House of the Dragon” to offset these cuts, HBO Max subscribers will feel this round of casualties all the more acutely.
HBO Max On-Platform Share by Genre, US, November 2022 (Parrot Analytics)
While the overall impact of recent show cuts may have been on a similar scale to last time, the biggest shows affected this time around demanded more than the biggest casualties of the previous round. ,infinity trainFor example, last time the show was the most sought after cut was 5.9 times the demand in the month before it was removed. “Infinity Train” may have an extremely dedicated fan base, but it doesn’t come close to reaching the same audience as “done byThis time the most sought-after show got cut, which had 23 times the average series demand in November. In fact, this time around the five shows being removed from HBO Max were in higher demand than “Infinity Train” at the time of their removal. With ‘Westworld,’raised by wolves” And “neverIncluded in the top 3% of shows by demand.
While these moves by HBO Max aren’t great news for current or potential customers of the platform, the good news for HBO Max is that the package of content it offers to consumers still looks competitively priced relative to the competition. In the third quarter of this year, the total demand for all shows and movies on the platform equaled that of Hulu. The ad-free tiers of both platforms cost $14.99/month, which looks like a good price for the amount of on-demand content it provides to subscribers.
Platform Catalog Demand vs. Value for Ad-Free Tiers, US, Q3 2022 (Parrot Analytics)
From this position, HBO Max has room to remove some content and remain competitive. However, with more cuts planned for January and potentially beyond, platforms must proceed carefully to avoid significantly damaging their value to customers and increased subscriber churn (the rate at which customers are added). and unsubscribe). Or alternatively, keep up the pace of deduction and find another “House of the Dragon” to smooth things over.
Christopher Hamilton is a Senior Insights Analyst at Parrot Analytics, a partner with WrapPRO. For more from Parrot Analytics, visit the Data & Analytics Hub.
