New York Movie Critics Predictions: Tom Cruise and “Tár”

by

The first phase of awards season will be fully launched from the Big Apple. Beginning with the Gotham Awards where “Everything Everywhere All at Once” triumphed, the New York Film Critics Circle will be the first major group of film journalists to reveal its winners on Friday, December 2.

NYFCC members will vote without seeing James Cameron’s sci-fi show “Avatar: The Way of the Water” and Marc Forster’s Tom Hanks starring “A Man Called Otto.” The premiere screening of Kasi Lemmons’ Whitney Houston biopic “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” starring Naomi Ackie took place Wednesday night, but it’s unclear how many members, if any, attended. Reactions to the film have also been embargoed for several weeks.

Stephanie Hsu in “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
Allyson Riggs / Courtesy of A24

NYFCC loves deep, rich storytelling (e.g., Todd Haynes’ “Carol”) and rarely falls for the presumptive Academy favorite. The group’s best picture has only tied for the best picture Oscar once in the past 11 years, with Michel Hazanavicius’ “The Artist.” However, informal polls and research of member reviews reveal that there are many fans of Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” within the NYFCC ranks. There are also strong advocates of Todd Field’s “Tár” and The Daniels’ “Everything Everywhere All at Once”. In the case of the latter, Ke Huy Quan could be a no-brainer in the acting realm after his powerful Gotham speech, when I suspect many voters will go to bat for the incredible Stephanie Hsu, who plays the dual roles of girl Joy Wang and villain Jobu Tupaki.

However, never count possible wildcard choices, such as “Top Gun: Maverick”. Following in the footsteps of the group that cast Lady Gaga for “House of Gucci” last year, Tom Cruise might be their jaw-dropping top acting choice.

The group isn’t immune to recency bias either, proven by their 2013 pick of David O. Russell’s “American Hustle,” which they watched the day before the vote. This could be useful for Antoine Fuqua’s “Emancipation” or perhaps even Damien Chazelle’s “Babylone”, which has a passionate following.

Many of the members are fans of James Gray’s personal drama “Armageddon Time,” which could appear for the script or land Jeremy Strong a supporting actor nod. Meanwhile, many are big fans of Rian Johnson’s thriller sequel “Glass Onion,” which could be a surprise winner with a preferential vote underway (or maybe its actors Janelle Monáe or Kate Hudson).

The top five predictions for NYFCC are below. Be sure to bookmark the 2022-2023 Awards Season Schedule for all the key dates and deadlines of the season.

Best film:

  1. “Tár” (Main Features)
  2. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  3. “Everywhere Everywhere All at once” (A24)
  4. “Glass Onion: A Mystery at Daggers Drawn” (Netflix)
  5. “Armageddon Hour” (Focus Features)

Director:

  1. Todd Field, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  2. Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  3. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything everywhere all at once” (A24)
  4. Park Chan-wook, “Decision to Leave” (Mubi)
  5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Bardo, false chronicle of a handful of truths” (Netflix)

Actor:

  1. Tom Cruise, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
  2. Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)
  3. Bill Nighy, “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  4. Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Images)
  5. Paul Mescal, “After Sun” (A24)

Actress:

  1. Danielle Deadwyler, “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
  2. Cate Blanchett, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  3. Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Michelle Yeoh, “Everything everywhere at the same time” (A24)
  5. Dale Dickey, “A Love Song” (Bleecker Street)

Supporting actor:

  1. Ke Huy Quan, “Everything everywhere all at once” (A24)
  2. Jeremy Strong, “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features)
  3. Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Images)
  4. Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse” (Netflix)
  5. Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

supporting actress:

  1. Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” (A24)
  2. Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Images)
  3. Nina Hoss, “Tár” (Focus Features)
  4. Janelle Monáe, “Glass Onion: A Mystery at Daggers Drawn” (Netflix)
  5. Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness” (neon)

Best Screenplay:

  1. “Tár” (Main Features) – Todd Field
  2. “Everything everywhere all at once” (A24) – Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
  3. “After Sun” (A24) – Charlotte Wells
  4. “Women Who Talk” (MGM/United Artists Release) – Sarah Polley
  5. “Armageddon Time” (Focus Features) – James Gray

Animation Film:

  1. “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24) – Dean Fleischer-Camp (director and producer), Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Terry Leonard, Paul Mezey, Jenny Slate (producers)
  2. “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro (director, producer), Mark Gustafson (director), Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar (producers)
  3. “Turning Red” (Pixar) – Domee Shi (director), Lindsey Collins (producer)
  4. “Eternal Spring” (ARTE) – Jason Loftus (director, producer), Kevin Koo, Yvan Pinard (producers)
  5. “The Bob’s Burgers Movie” (20th Century Studios) – Loren Bouchard, Bernard Derriman, George Chang, Janelle Momary, Nora Smith

Best Cinematography:

  1. “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures) – Claudio Miranda
  2. “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures) – Janusz Kaminski
  3. “Athena” (Netflix) – Matias Boucard
  4. “No” (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema
  5. “Tár” (Focus Features) – Florian Hoffmeister

Best Non-Fiction Film:

  1. “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” (Neon) – Laura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers)
  2. “All That Breathes” (HBO Documentary Films/Sideshow) – Shaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers)
  3. “Fire of Love” (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon) – Sara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers)
  4. “The Territory” (National Geographic) – Alex Pritz (director, producer), Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida
  5. “Descendant” (Netflix) – Margaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers)

Best Foreign Language Film:

  1. “Close” (Belgium)
  2. “Return to Seoul” (Cambodia)
  3. “Holy Spider” (Denmark)
  4. Saint-Omer (France)
  5. “EO” (Poland)

Best First Film:

  1. “After Sun” (A24) – Charlotte Wells
  2. “The Inspection” (A24) – Elegance Bratton
  3. “Nanny” (Amazon Studios) – Nikyatu Jusu
  4. “Emily” (Bleecker Street) – Frances O’Connor
  5. “Murina” (Kino Lorber) – Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović

Note: The group usually assigns special rewards to an organization or individual.

To see ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety Oscar Center. The first set of SAG Awards predictions for the movie was also revealed.

Leave a Comment