Variety The Awards Circuit section brings together all the news about awards and related content throughout the year, including the following: official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, hosted by Variety awards editor Clayton Davis. Predictions pages reflect the current race standings and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual competitor. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
Visit the respective ceremony prediction pages via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMY | GRAMMYS | TONY
UPDATE: July 1, 2023
Oscars 2023 Predictions:
Best Picture
Sony Pictures Animation
Weekly Commentary: Fall film festivals loom on the horizon under the dark cloud of a writers’ strike and the threat of potential actors joining the fight. Nevertheless, the midpoint of 2023 is over, and there is still plenty of promise to come.
The news of the queues is already starting to flow. So far we know Venice will have Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” starring Emma Stone, the couple’s sequel to Best Picture nominated “The Favorite” (2018). A surreal sci-fi romance based on an adaptation of Alasdair Grey’s novel, the movie Searchlight has a talented cast including Willem Dafoe, Mark Ruffalo, Christopher Abbott and Margaret Qualley. It could be their pony for the season.
Meanwhile, two highly anticipated biopics will drop at the Lido – director Michael Mann’s take on Italian racing driver Enzo Ferrari starring Adam Driver titled ‘Ferrari’ has sparked interest. At the same time, Sofia Coppola returns with “Priscilla”, an adaptation of the memoirs of the famous wife of Elvis Presley, which stars Cailee Spaeny and Jacob Elordi.
Pablo Larrain’s lively Chilean contender “El Conde,” who is rumored to be a contender at all levels, has generated excitement, especially as his first film since “Spencer” (2021), which landed a name for Kristen Stewart.
After two Tony Award nominations and in the midst of an Emmy campaign where she is currently the favorite, Jessica Chastain will stop in Italy with “Memory”, the first project in English from writer and director Michel Franco. It’s a highly anticipated viewing with an unknown plot and a cast that includes Peter Sarsgaard, Merritt Wever and Josh Charles.
From January to June, we saw promising candidates emerge.
The Toronto Film Festival will have dozens of world premieres, including Taika Waititi’s “Next Goal Wins” with Michael Fassbender.
Starting in the first half of 2023, we’re already following top picture hopefuls such as Sony Pictures’ animation “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”, A24’s romance drama “Past Lives” and the very entertaining “Air” from Amazon Studios.
There are, of course, Cannes stars – Martin Scorsese’s ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’, Jonathan Glazer’s ‘The Zone of Interest’, Todd Haynes’ ‘May December’ and the Palme d’Or ‘Anatomy of a Fall ” by Justine Triet — already in the discussion.
The revised charts ahead of the fall festivals are below, with the top picture charts updated on the Oscars prediction page.
Read: Variety Awards Circuit for the latest Oscar predictions across all categories.
The submission deadline for the general categories is November 18, 2023. Preliminary voting on the shortlist will begin on December 18 and the results will be announced on December 21. The voting period will run from January 11 to 16, 2024, with the official nominations. announcement on January 23.
The 96th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 10.
And the expected nominees are:
- “The Moonflower Slayers” (Apple/Paramount Pictures Original Movies)
Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi - “Maestro” (Netflix)
Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg - “Oppenheimer(Universal Images)
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan - “The purple color” (Warner Bros.)
Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey - “Past lives(A24)
David Hinojosa, Pamela Koffler, Christine Vachon - “Saltburn(Amazon Studios)
Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie - “Leftovers” (Main Features)
Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson - “Spider-Man: Through the Spider-Verse(Sony Pictures)
Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg - “may december” (Netflix)
Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon - “The area of interest(A24)
Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
Next in line
- “Dune: part two” (Warner Bros.)
- “Anatomy of a fall” (Neon)
- “poor things” (projector images)
- “dumb money(Sony Pictures)
- “Air(Amazon Studios)
- “Bob Marley: a love” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Clarence’s Book(Sony Pictures)
- “Night slut” (projector images)
- “The killer” (Netflix)
- “Freud’s Last Seance(Sony Pictures Classics)
Other high-level possibilities
- “Are you there God? It’s me, Margaret” (Lions Gate)
- “Wish(Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Napoleon” (Apple Original Movies/Sony Pictures)
- “Memory” (No distribution in the United States)
- “The iron claw(A24)
- “Ferrari(STX Films)
- “blackberry(IFC Films)
- “Challengers(MGM)
- “El Conde” (Netflix)
- “Priscilla(A24)
Also in the running
- “Fair play” (Netflix)
- “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
- “Enemy(Amazon Studios)
- “Rust” (Netflix)
- “city of asteroids” (Main Features)
- “Nyad” (Netflix)
- “A little prayer(Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Golda(Bleecker Street)
- “The next goal wins” (projector images)
- “Gaps(Sony Pictures Classics)
All eligible titles (literate by studio)**
** This official list is incomplete, as all release dates are not yet confirmed and subject to change.
2022 Category Winner: “Everything, everywhere, all at once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)
Oscar prediction categories
BEST PHOTO | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORT ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCENARIO | ADAPTED SCENARIO | ANIMATED FILM | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIR | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SHEET | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FILM | INTERNATIONAL FILE | ANIMATION SHORT | SHORT DOCUMENTARY | SHORT LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Oscars
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, are Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the motion picture industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen sections are represented among the approximately 10,000 members. The branches are Actors, Associates, Casting Directors, Cinematographers, Costume Designers, Directors, Documentaries, Executives, Film Editors, Makeup Artists and Hair Stylists, Marketing and Public Relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artist reps), music, producers, production design, animated shorts and features, sound, visual effects, and writers.