Variety The Awards Circuit section brings together all the news about awards and related content throughout the year, including the following: official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, hosted by Variety awards editor Clayton Davis. Predictions pages reflect the current race standings and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual competitor. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
Visit the respective ceremony prediction pages via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMY | GRAMMYS | TONY
UPDATE: May 12, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Gabrielle Dennis, Robin Thede and Skye Townsend from “A Black Lady Sketch Show”
Screenshot courtesy of Showtime
Weekly Commentary: What’s a scripted variety series when John Oliver’s biting monologues about the war in Ukraine compete with Courtroom Kiki, Pedro Pascal playing a Super Mario brother, and Stephen Colbert’s animated quest for ” be on the first page ” ?
The Television Academy rules for the new variety talk series and scripted variety categories continue to get confusing. However, some shows and their stars don’t take all available avenues for Emmy recognition. Most notable is John Oliver, the host of “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver,” who was moved to the scripted variety of talk series by the TV Academy. It will rival NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” and its cable counterpart “A Black Lady Sketch Show.”
What casual awards-goers might not know is that a move to scripted variety makes the late-night host and comedian eligible for consideration in the lead actor race of the comedy, where he would face Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) and Steve Martin and Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”). However, HBO representatives have confirmed he did not show up for the category, despite being eligible.
“He’s not acting,” said an industry professional Variety. “He shouldn’t have been moved there in the first place.”
HBO attempted to block Oliver from being removed from the TV series category, but was refused. The format of each episode allows the UK host to explore a particular subject in depth, filmed in front of a live studio audience. While there are examples of mock trailers for fictional TV shows during episodes, it may not have been having guests on the show that kept him from competing with Jimmy. Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel and Jon Stewart (which was moved by the TV Academy from hosted non-fiction).
A show like Showtime’s “Ziwe,” canceled in April 2023 and fitting what many assume to be the talk show mold, competed alongside sketches for its previous two seasons. Featuring the titular writer, comedian and Internet sensation sitting in for viral interviews, coupled with a mix of musical numbers and skits, the 31-year-old host chose to submit to the lead actress race of the comedy, which she has done in previous Emmy years. Robin Thede (“A Black Lady Sketch Show”) and Amy Schumer (“Inside Amy Schumer”) are other female counterparts of the scripted variety also in the running.
The stark contrast between “SNL,” “Last Week Tonight” and “Black Lady Sketch” is even more shocking these days. Apple’s “Schmigadoon” musical tried to go from comedy to screenplay, but was confirmed as rejected by the TV Academy.
The scripted variety continues to struggle in submission numbers. Variety currently only tracks 11 submissions which will also include – “Documentary Now!” (IFC), “History of the World Part II” (Hulu), “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+), “Pause with Sam Jay” (HBO), “Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC) and “Stephen Colbert Presents Tooning Out the News” (Paramount+). By Emmy Rulesthis will only result in three nominees.
Voting for Emmy nominations takes place June 15-26. Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and subject to change.
And the expected nominees are:
- “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
- “Ziwe” (Show time)
Other high-level possibilities
- “History of the world part II” (Hulu)
- “Documentary now!” (IFC)
- “Stephen Colbert presents Tooning Out the News”
- “Break with Sam Jay” (HBO)
- “Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC)
All eligible titles (literate by network)**
- “Documentary now!” (IFC)
- “Sherman’s Showcase” (IFC)
- “A dark lady sketch show” (HBO)
- “History of the world part II” (Hulu)
- “Inside Amy Schumer” (Paramount+)
- “Last week tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
- “Break with Sam Jay” (HBO)
- “Random acts of theft” (HBO)
- “Saturday Night Live(NBC)
- “Stephen Colbert presents Tooning Out the News”
- “Ziwe” (Show time)
** This official list and/or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 Category Winner: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) — Season 48 — Lorne Michaels, executive producer; Javier Winnik, supervising producer; Lindsay Shookus, Erin Doyle, Tom Broecker and Caroline Maroney, producers; Steve Higgins and Erik Kenward, produced by
Emmy Awards Prediction Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGICAL SERIES | TV FILM | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEADING ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEADING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SECONDARY ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTION (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED FILM/TV) |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are presented by the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American prime-time television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (recognizes achievement in craftsmanship), and Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant contributions in engineering and technology). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy has over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.