Variety The Awards Circuit section brings together all the news about awards and related content throughout the year, including the following: official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards, hosted by Variety awards editor Clayton Davis. Predictions pages reflect the current race standings and do not reflect the personal preferences of any individual competitor. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Forecasts are updated every Thursday.
Visit the respective ceremony prediction pages via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMY | GRAMMYS | TONY
UPDATE: April 10, 2023
2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Melanie Lynskey as Shauna in YELLOWJACKETS Season 2
Courtesy of Kimberley French/Showtime
Weekly Commentary: Jennifer Coolidge, Rhea Seehorn and Sarah Snook are among the supporting contenders who see an opportunity to be seen as leading women. Acclaimed stars could mount critical campaign switches.
Variety exclusively reported on discussions regarding Coolidge (“The White Lotus”), Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”), and Snook (“Succession”), potentially opting to seek out lead drama actress deals for their respective shows. Interestingly, it’s a change that could benefit previously nominated actresses due to the apparent lack of usually obvious and buzzy contenders. More so, any of them can potentially win, each having so many risks that don’t necessarily outweigh the rewards.
In phase one, Melanie Lynskey emerged as early favorite for her second outing as traumatized plane crash survivor Shauna for Showtime’s “Yellowjackets.” While other acclaimed and respected names such as Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”), Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”) and Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) are also in the running, they are far from locks (yet).
Snook, who plays the daughter of political fixer Shiv, has been nominated twice but has yet to win the award. Arguably a main character throughout the series, the love for the Aussie sensation has been palpable, and many believe she deserves overdue recognition. As an added bonus, it will also allow her co-star J. Smith Cameron, who landed her first name last year, to compete for her first career Emmy.
As for Seehorn, she’s also a respected actress, playing beloved character Kim Wexler, Saul Goodman’s confidante. The second part of the sixth and final season of the “Breaking Bad” spin-off aired last July. And while Seehorn appeared in four of the six episodes, voters might see her as an overall deal with her co-star Bob Odenkirk, who is on her run as the main drama actor. Additionally, the Vince Gilligan and Peter Gould-created show has received an astonishing total of 46 Emmy nominations, but has yet to land a single award. It is time for that to change.
Snook and Seehorn opting for prominent attention will now create an opportunity for their respective series to be nominated in all major acting races, following in the footsteps of directors like “The Crown” (in 2021, almost sweeping, losing Charles Dance for Guest Dramatic Actor). An all-around nominee like that rarely results in either actor not winning.
And then there’s the magical delight of Jennifer Coolidge as Tanya McQuoid in “The White Lotus: Sicily.” Following his win last year for the show’s inaugural season (but on a limited run, which the show can’t compete with), the 61-year-old sensation has cleaned up the circuit this season, albeit in different categories. At the Golden Globes, she won the Supporting Actress (Limited) race, as well as the show, while at Critics Choice, she won the Drama Side award. Most notably, Coolidge won the SAG Award for Female Dramatic Actress, suggesting she could do well there with the TV Academy.
It should be noted that SAG does not hand out awards for its support, and three of its four other nominees – Julia Garner, Laura Linney (“Ozark”) and Zendaya (“Euphoria”) – are not eligible this season, with only Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) competing, also supporting.
HBO
A critical difference between the Oscars and the Emmys is how they handle category submissions. With the Oscars, a member is allowed to vote for a lead or supporting actor, despite FYC campaigns. With the Emmys, where the actor submits is the only place he can be chosen.
Finally, it is worth highlighting the modified voting method which makes all the races even more unknown. In previous years, there was no cap on the number of nominees a member could vote for in any given category (which was not juried). For example, the lead drama actress had 114 performers submitted in 2022, which would result in six nominees. However, a member voting for nominations could check off all 114 names if they wished. When the ballots are filled in June, up to six submissions can be chosen (as it always should have been). This makes every race more competitive and even more undiscovered.
To quote the knight from “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade” (1989), “Choose wisely.”
Voting for Emmy nominations takes place June 15-26. Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and subject to change.
And the expected nominees are:
- Emma d’Arcy — “Dragon House” (HBO)
- Elizabeth Moss — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
- Sharon Horgan — “bad sisters” (Apple TV+)
- Sophie Nelisse — “yellow jackets” (Show time)
Other high-level possibilities
- Tawny Cypress — “yellow jackets” (Show time)
- Juliet Lewis — “yellow jackets” (Show time)
- Keri Russell — “The diplomat” (Netflix)
- Christine Baransky — “The good fight” (Paramount+)
- Helen Mirren — “1923” (Paramount+)
- Hilary Swank — “Alaska Daily” (ABC)
- Betty Gilpin — “Mrs Davis” (Peacock)
- Toni Collette — “The power” (First video)
- India Amarteifio — “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
- Morfydd Clark — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (First video)
All eligible titles (literate by network)**
**This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.
2022 Category Winner: Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO)
Emmy Awards Prediction Categories
DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGICAL SERIES | TV FILM | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEADING ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEADING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SECONDARY ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPT VARIETIES SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTION (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED FILM/TV) | SKETCHES OF VARIETY, SERIES, SPECIALS |
Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories
INTERIM GUEST, VOICE-OFF | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |
About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are presented by the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American prime-time television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (recognizes achievement in craftsmanship), and Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant contributions in engineering and technology). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy has over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.