2023 Oscars Best Actress Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Oct. 1, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Danielle Deadwyler cements her place in the best actress race with “Till,” which premiered at the New York Film Festival on Saturday. Playing Mamie Till-Mobley, the breakout star from “The Harder They Fall” (2021) delivers one of the year’s single best performances, by any person, bar none. It will be up to Orion and United Artists Releasing to make sure the film is in front of voters and they are giving Deadwyler (and the film) the consideration it deserves. It would be criminal to let a turn such as this, pass voters by.

Michelle Williams’ work as the piano-playing mother in Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans” will be campaigned for the Oscars in best actress, instead of supporting as many pundits had speculated. This throws a huge wrench in both the lead and supporting actress races.

Williams has been nominated for four Academy Awards – “Brokeback Mountain” (2005) and Manchester by the Sea” (2016) in supporting actress and “Blue Valentine” (2010) and “My Week with Marilyn” (2011) in lead actress. Undoubtedly overdue, she’ll face tougher competition with Cate Blanchett’s Volpi Cup-winning turn in Todd Field’s “TÁR” and Michelle Yeoh’s acclaimed work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Roles that can go either way between lead and supporting have triumphed before. Olivia Colman won her Oscar over Glenn Close (“The Wife”) and Lady Gaga (“A Star is Born”) for “The Favourite” (2018) while Kate Winslet still managed to top Anne Hathaway (“Rachel Getting Married”) and Meryl Streep (“Doubt”) when she was switched by the Academy from supporting to lead for “The Reader” (2008). Winslet had won the Golden Globe and SAG prizes for supporting prior to the switcharoo. Perhaps Williams can follow in their golden shoes?

Let’s not forget the box-office performance of “The Woman King” that has Oscar-winner Viola Davis (“Fences”) in the thick of it once again, potentially becoming the second woman, to be recognized as a producer and acting in the same year. The first was Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (2020), winning both categories for best picture and actress. Coincidentally, Davis was among that lineup for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”

Ana de Armas, on the cover of Variety this week, could overcome the mixed reception for “Blonde” while it’s always foolish to count out someone as noteworthy as Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”) or Margot Robbie (“Babylon”).

We’ll also see if the Academy is “cool” enough to see the merits of the incredible Taylor Russell from Luca Guadgnino’s “Bones & All.”

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures)

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Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.